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Local Instruments, Global Extrapolation: External Validity of the Labor Supply-Fertility Local Average Treatment Effect

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  • James Bisbee
  • Rajeev Dehejia
  • Cristian Pop-Eleches
  • Cyrus Samii

Abstract

We investigate whether local average treatment effects (LATE’s) can be extrapolated to new settings. We extend the analysis and framework of Dehejia, Pop-Eleches, and Samii (2015), which examines the external validity of the Angrist-Evans (1998) reduced-form natural experiment of having two first children of the same sex on the probability of an incremental child and on mother’s labor supply. We estimate Angrist and Evans's (1998) same-sex instrumental variable strategy in 139 country-year censuses using data from the Integrated Public Use Micro Sample International. We compare each country-year's LATE, as a hypothetical target, to the LATE extrapolated from other country-years (using the approach suggested by Angrist and Fernandez-Val 2010). Paralleling our findings in Dehejia, Pop-Eleches, and Samii (2015), we find that with a sufficiently large reference sample, we extrapolate the treatment effect reasonably well, but the degree of accuracy depends on the extent of covariate similarity between the target and reference settings. Our results suggest that – at least for our application – there is hope for external validity.

Suggested Citation

  • James Bisbee & Rajeev Dehejia & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Cyrus Samii, 2015. "Local Instruments, Global Extrapolation: External Validity of the Labor Supply-Fertility Local Average Treatment Effect," NBER Working Papers 21663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21663
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-620, September.
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    4. Martin Huber, 2015. "Testing the Validity of the Sibling Sex Ratio Instrument," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 29(1), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    6. Dehejia, Rajeev & Pop-Eleches, Cristian & Samii, Cyrus, 2015. "From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 9300, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Abadie, Alberto, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 231-263, April.
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    9. Erin Hartman & Richard Grieve & Roland Ramsahai & Jasjeet S. Sekhon, 2015. "From sample average treatment effect to population average treatment effect on the treated: combining experimental with observational studies to estimate population treatment effects," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 757-778, June.
    10. Lena Edlund & Chulhee Lee, 2013. "Son Preference, Sex Selection and Economic Development: The Case of South Korea," NBER Working Papers 18679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-477, June.
    12. Martin Huber & Giovanni Mellace, 2015. "Testing Instrument Validity for LATE Identification Based on Inequality Moment Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 398-411, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rajeev Dehejia & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Cyrus Samii, 2015. "From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 21459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Iva Trako, 2018. "Fertility and Parental Labor-Force Participation: New Evidence from a Developing Country in the Balkans," Working Papers halshs-01828471, HAL.
    3. Santiago Pereda Fernández, 2019. "Identification and estimation of triangular models with a binary treatment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1210, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Schmieder, Julia, 2020. "Fertility as a Driver of Maternal Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 13496, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Denis Fougère & Nicolas Jacquemet, 2019. "Causal Inference and Impact Evaluation," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE), issue 510-511-5, pages 181-200.
    6. Jan Priebe, 2020. "Quasi-experimental evidence for the causal link between fertility and subjective well-being," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 839-882, July.
    7. Aaronson, Daniel & Dehejia, Rajeev & Jordon, Andrew & Pop-Eleches, Cristian & Samii, Cyrus & Schultze, Karl, 2017. "The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries," MPRA Paper 76768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Iva Trako, 2018. "Fertility and Parental Labor-Force Participation: New Evidence from a Developing Country in the Balkans," PSE Working Papers halshs-01828471, HAL.
    9. Fougère, Denis & Jacquemet, Nicolas, 2020. "Policy Evaluation Using Causal Inference Methods," IZA Discussion Papers 12922, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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