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Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing

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  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Jae Song
  • Dmitriy Stolyarov

Abstract

We analyze lifetime earnings histories of white males during 1960-2010 and categorize the labor force status of every worker as either working full-time, partially retired or fully retired. We find that the fraction of partially retired workers has risen dramatically (from virtually 0 to 15 percent for 60-62 year olds), and that the duration of partial retirement spells has been steadily increasing. We estimate the response of retirement timing to variations in unemployment rate, inflation and housing prices. Flows into both full and partial retirement increase significantly when the unemployment rate rises. Workers around normal retirement age are especially sensitive to variations in the unemployment rate. Workers who are partially retired show a differential response to a high unemployment rate: younger workers increase their partial retirement spell, while older workers accelerate their transition to full retirement. We also find that high inflation discourages full-time work and encourages partial and full retirement. Housing prices do not have a significant impact on retirement timing.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Jae Song & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing," NBER Working Papers 19638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19638
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    2. Chunil Kim & Hyobi Choi & Yeol Choi, 2021. "Retirement Age and Housing Consumption: The Case of South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2015. "The Great Recession, Retirement and Related Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 20960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Chen, Guodong & Lee, Minjoon & Nam, Tong-yob, 2020. "Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 293-315.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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