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Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    ()

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Song, Jae

    ()

    (U.S. Social Security Administration)

  • Stolyarov, Dmitriy

    ()

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

We analyze lifetime earnings histories of white males during 1960-2010 and categorize the labor force status of every worker as either working full-time, partially retired or fully retired. We find that the fraction of partially retired workers has risen dramatically (from virtually 0 to 15 percent for 60-62 year olds), and that the duration of partial retirement spells has been steadily increasing. We estimate the response of retirement timing to variations in unemployment rate, inflation and housing prices. Flows into both full and partial retirement increase significantly when the unemployment rate rises. Workers around normal retirement age are especially sensitive to variations in the unemployment rate. Workers who are partially retired show a differential response to a high unemployment rate: younger workers increase their partial retirement spell, while older workers accelerate their transition to full retirement. We also find that high inflation discourages full-time work and encourages partial and full retirement. Housing prices do not have a significant impact on retirement timing.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 7744.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7744
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Keywords: retirement; business cycles;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
  • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
  • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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  1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2010. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models," Working Papers 91, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  2. Christopher House & John Laitner & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2008. "Valuing Lost Home Production Of Dual Earner Couples," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(2), pages 701-736, 05.
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  6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
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  19. Barry Bosworth, 2012. "Economic Consequences of the Great Recession: Evidence from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2012-4, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2012.
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Cited by:

  1. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
  2. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2015. "The Great Recession, Retirement and Related Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 20960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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