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Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing

Author Info

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    ()

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Song, Jae

    ()

    (U.S. Social Security Administration)

  • Stolyarov, Dmitriy

    ()

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

We analyze lifetime earnings histories of white males during 1960-2010 and categorize the labor force status of every worker as either working full-time, partially retired or fully retired. We find that the fraction of partially retired workers has risen dramatically (from virtually 0 to 15 percent for 60-62 year olds), and that the duration of partial retirement spells has been steadily increasing. We estimate the response of retirement timing to variations in unemployment rate, inflation and housing prices. Flows into both full and partial retirement increase significantly when the unemployment rate rises. Workers around normal retirement age are especially sensitive to variations in the unemployment rate. Workers who are partially retired show a differential response to a high unemployment rate: younger workers increase their partial retirement spell, while older workers accelerate their transition to full retirement. We also find that high inflation discourages full-time work and encourages partial and full retirement. Housing prices do not have a significant impact on retirement timing.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 7744.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7744
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Keywords: retirement; business cycles;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
  • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
  • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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Cited by:

  1. Aaronson, Stephanie & Cajner, Tomaz & Fallick, Bruce C. & Galbis-Reig, Felix & Smith, Christopher & Wascher, William L., 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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