IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18766.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty as Commitment

Author

Listed:
  • Jaromir Nosal
  • Guillermo Ordoñez

Abstract

Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay intervention to learn more about them. We show that intervention delay leads to strategic restraint banks endogenously restrict the riskiness of their portfolio relative to their peers in order to avoid being the worst performers and bearing the cost of such delay. These novel forces help to avoid endogenous crises even when the government cannot commit. We analyze the effect of government policies from the perspective of this new result.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromir Nosal & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2013. "Uncertainty as Commitment," NBER Working Papers 18766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18766
    Note: CF EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18766.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2007. "Too many to fail--An analysis of time-inconsistency in bank closure policies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, January.
    2. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    3. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    4. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    5. Perotti, Enrico C. & Suarez, Javier, 2002. "Last bank standing: What do I gain if you fail?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1599-1622, October.
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    7. Ing-Haw Cheng & Konstantin Milbradt, 2012. "The Hazards of Debt: Rollover Freezes, Incentives, and Bailouts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1070-1110.
    8. Juan D. Carrillo & Thomas Mariotti, 2000. "Strategic Ignorance as a Self-Disciplining Device," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(3), pages 529-544.
    9. Todd Keister, 2016. "Bailouts and Financial Fragility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(2), pages 704-736.
    10. Xavier Freixas, 1999. "Optimal Bail Out Policy, Conditionality and Creative Ambiguity," FMG Discussion Papers dp327, Financial Markets Group.
    11. Cukierman, Alex & Izhakian, Yehuda, 2015. "Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 160-179.
    12. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    13. Xavier Freixas, 1999. "Optimal bail out policy, conditionality and constructive ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 400, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A hesitant government may have good aspects
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-03-15 19:42:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    2. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena & Goldstein, Itay & Leonello, Agnese, 2018. "Government guarantees and financial stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 518-557.
    3. Facundo Piguillem & Alessandro Riboni, 2015. "Spending-Biased Legislators: Discipline Through Disagreement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(2), pages 901-949.
    4. Todd Keister, 2016. "Bailouts and Financial Fragility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(2), pages 704-736.
    5. Yuliyan Mitkov, 2016. "Inequality and Financial Fragility," Departmental Working Papers 201602, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    6. Keister, Todd & Mitkov, Yuliyan, 2023. "Allocating losses: Bail-ins, bailouts and bank regulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    7. Ernesto Pastén, 2014. "Bailouts and Prudential Policies - A Delicate Interaction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 743, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly, 2019. "Financial Safety Nets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 105-132, February.
    9. Nicolas Aragon, 2022. "Debt Overhang, Risk Shifting and Zombie Lending," Working Papers 01/2022, National Bank of Ukraine.
    10. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    11. Ernesto Pasten, 2020. "Prudential Policies and Bailouts: A Delicate Interaction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 181-197, October.
    12. Giuliana, Raffaele, 2022. "Fluctuating bail-in expectations and effects on market discipline, risk-taking and cost of capital," ESRB Working Paper Series 133, European Systemic Risk Board.
    13. Dávila, Eduardo & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Does size matter? Bailouts with large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-22.
    14. Jessie Jiaxu Wang & Agostino Capponi & Hongzhong Zhang, 2022. "A Theory of Collateral Requirements for Central Counterparties," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6993-7017, September.
    15. Mitkov, Yuliyan, 2020. "Inequality and financial fragility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 233-248.
    16. Santos, João A.C. & Suarez, Javier, 2019. "Liquidity standards and the value of an informed lender of last resort," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 351-368.
    17. Allen N. Berger & Charles P. Himmelberg & Raluca A. Roman & Sergey Tsyplakov, 2022. "Bank bailouts, bail‐ins, or no regulatory intervention? A dynamic model and empirical tests of optimal regulation and implications for future crises," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1031-1090, December.
    18. Erol, Selman & Ordoñez, Guillermo, 2017. "Network reactions to banking regulations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 51-67.
    19. Gradstein, Mark & Kaganovich, Michael, 2019. "Legislative restraints in corporate bailout design," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 337-350.
    20. Xu Tian, 2022. "Uncertainty and the Shadow Banking Crisis: Estimates from a Dynamic Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1469-1496, February.
    21. De Caux, Robert & McGroarty, Frank & Brede, Markus, 2017. "The evolution of risk and bailout strategy in banking systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 109-118.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ernesto Pasten, 2020. "Prudential Policies and Bailouts: A Delicate Interaction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 181-197, October.
    2. Dávila, Eduardo & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Does size matter? Bailouts with large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly, 2019. "Financial Safety Nets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 105-132, February.
    4. Ma, Chang & Nguyen, Xuan-Hai, 2021. "Too big to fail and optimal regulation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 747-758.
    5. Marius Andrei Zoican & Lucyna Anna Gornicka, 2014. "Banking Union Optimal Design under Moral Hazard," 2014 Papers pzo33, Job Market Papers.
    6. Ernesto Pastén, 2014. "Bailouts and Prudential Policies - A Delicate Interaction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 743, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Rob Nijskens & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2011. "The Lender of Last Resort: Liquidity Provision versus the Possibility of Bailout," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    9. Choi, Dong Beom & Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2021. "Watering a lemon tree: Heterogeneous risk taking and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    10. Levent Altinoglu & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2023. "Collective Moral Hazard and the Interbank Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 35-64, April.
    11. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    12. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    13. Keister, Todd & Mitkov, Yuliyan, 2023. "Allocating losses: Bail-ins, bailouts and bank regulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    14. Mengus, Eric, 2023. "Asset purchase bailouts and endogenous implicit guarantees," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Marius A. Zoican & Lucyna A. Górnicka, 2013. "Banking Unions: Distorted Incentives and Efficient Bank Resolution," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-184/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 May 2014.
    16. Ratnovski, Lev, 2009. "Bank liquidity regulation and the lender of last resort," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 541-558, October.
    17. Kostic, Natalija & Muthsam, Viktoria & Laux, Christian, 2023. "Accounting Changes and Enforcement of Bank Capital Requirements in a Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277694, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Acharya, Viral & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2005. "Cash-in-the-Market Pricing and Optimal Bank Bailout Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Josef Schroth, 2021. "On the Distributional Effects of Bank Bailouts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 252-277, April.
    20. Santos, João A.C. & Suarez, Javier, 2019. "Liquidity standards and the value of an informed lender of last resort," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 351-368.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18766. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.