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Uncertainty as Commitment

Author

Listed:
  • Jaromir Nosal
  • Guillermo Ordoñez

Abstract

Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay intervention to learn more about them. We show that intervention delay leads to strategic restraint banks endogenously restrict the riskiness of their portfolio relative to their peers in order to avoid being the worst performers and bearing the cost of such delay. These novel forces help to avoid endogenous crises even when the government cannot commit. We analyze the effect of government policies from the perspective of this new result.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromir Nosal & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2013. "Uncertainty as Commitment," NBER Working Papers 18766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18766
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    2. Acharya, Viral V. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2007. "Too many to fail--An analysis of time-inconsistency in bank closure policies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, January.
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    8. Ing-Haw Cheng & Konstantin Milbradt, 2012. "The Hazards of Debt: Rollover Freezes, Incentives, and Bailouts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1070-1110.
    9. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    10. Juan D. Carrillo & Thomas Mariotti, 2000. "Strategic Ignorance as a Self-Disciplining Device," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 529-544.
    11. Todd Keister, 2016. "Bailouts and Financial Fragility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 704-736.
    12. Xavier Freixas, 1999. "Optimal Bail Out Policy, Conditionality and Creative Ambiguity," FMG Discussion Papers dp327, Financial Markets Group.
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    1. A hesitant government may have good aspects
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-03-15 19:42:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    2. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena & Goldstein, Itay & Leonello, Agnese, 2018. "Government guarantees and financial stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 518-557.
    3. Facundo Piguillem & Alessandro Riboni, 2015. "Spending-Biased Legislators: Discipline Through Disagreement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(2), pages 901-949.
    4. Todd Keister, 2016. "Bailouts and Financial Fragility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 704-736.
    5. Yuliyan Mitkov, 2016. "Inequality and Financial Fragility," Departmental Working Papers 201602, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    6. Ernesto Pastén, 2014. "Bailouts and Prudential Policies - A Delicate Interaction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 743, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly, 2019. "Financial Safety Nets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 105-132, February.
    8. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    9. Ernesto Pasten, 2020. "Prudential Policies and Bailouts: A Delicate Interaction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 181-197, October.
    10. Giuliana, Raffaele, 2022. "Fluctuating bail-in expectations and effects on market discipline, risk-taking and cost of capital," ESRB Working Paper Series 133, European Systemic Risk Board.
    11. Dávila, Eduardo & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Does size matter? Bailouts with large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-22.
    12. Mitkov, Yuliyan, 2020. "Inequality and financial fragility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 233-248.
    13. Santos, João A.C. & Suarez, Javier, 2019. "Liquidity standards and the value of an informed lender of last resort," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 351-368.
    14. Erol, Selman & Ordoñez, Guillermo, 2017. "Network reactions to banking regulations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 51-67.
    15. Guillermo Ordonez & Selman Erol, 2017. "Network Reactions to Banking Regulations," 2017 Meeting Papers 1125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly embrace: sovereign and financial balance sheets doom loops," Post-Print hal-03270310, HAL.
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    18. De Caux, Robert & McGroarty, Frank & Brede, Markus, 2017. "The evolution of risk and bailout strategy in banking systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 109-118.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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