IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbp/nbpmis/141.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty as commitment

Author

Listed:
  • Jaromir Nosal

    (Columbia University)

  • Guillermo Ordoñez

    (University of Pennsylvania and NBER)

Abstract

Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay intervention to learn more about them. We show that intervention delay leads to strategic restraint: banks endogenously restrict the riskiness of their portfolio relative to their peers in order to avoid being the worst performers and bearing the cost of such delay. These novel forces help to avoid endogenous crises even when the government cannot commit. We analyze the effect of government policies from the perspective of this new result.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromir Nosal & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2013. "Uncertainty as commitment," NBP Working Papers 141, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/141_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    2. Acharya, Viral V. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2007. "Too many to fail--An analysis of time-inconsistency in bank closure policies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, January.
    3. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    4. Cukierman, Alex & Izhakian, Yehuda, 2015. "Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 160-179.
    5. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    6. Perotti, Enrico C. & Suarez, Javier, 2002. "Last bank standing: What do I gain if you fail?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1599-1622, October.
    7. Ing-Haw Cheng & Konstantin Milbradt, 2012. "The Hazards of Debt: Rollover Freezes, Incentives, and Bailouts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1070-1110.
    8. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    9. Juan D. Carrillo & Thomas Mariotti, 2000. "Strategic Ignorance as a Self-Disciplining Device," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 529-544.
    10. Todd Keister, 2016. "Bailouts and Financial Fragility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 704-736.
    11. Xavier Freixas, 1999. "Optimal Bail Out Policy, Conditionality and Creative Ambiguity," FMG Discussion Papers dp327, Financial Markets Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A hesitant government may have good aspects
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-03-15 19:42:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    2. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    3. Santos, João A.C. & Suarez, Javier, 2019. "Liquidity standards and the value of an informed lender of last resort," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 351-368.
    4. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena & Goldstein, Itay & Leonello, Agnese, 2018. "Government guarantees and financial stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 518-557.
    5. Todd Keister, 2016. "Bailouts and Financial Fragility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 704-736.
    6. Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly, 2019. "Financial Safety Nets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 105-132, February.
    7. Ernesto Pasten, 2020. "Prudential Policies and Bailouts: A Delicate Interaction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 181-197, October.
    8. Facundo Piguillem & Alessandro Riboni, 2015. "Spending-Biased Legislators: Discipline Through Disagreement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(2), pages 901-949.
    9. Dávila, Eduardo & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Does size matter? Bailouts with large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-22.
    10. Erol, Selman & Ordoñez, Guillermo, 2017. "Network reactions to banking regulations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 51-67.
    11. Gradstein, Mark & Kaganovich, Michael, 2019. "Legislative restraints in corporate bailout design," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 337-350.
    12. Mitkov, Yuliyan, 2020. "Inequality and financial fragility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 233-248.
    13. Ernesto Pastén, 2014. "Bailouts and Prudential Policies - A Delicate Interaction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 743, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Guillermo Ordonez & Selman Erol, 2017. "Network Reactions to Banking Regulations," 2017 Meeting Papers 1125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. De Caux, Robert & McGroarty, Frank & Brede, Markus, 2017. "The evolution of risk and bailout strategy in banking systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 109-118.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dávila, Eduardo & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Does size matter? Bailouts with large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-22.
    2. Ernesto Pasten, 2020. "Prudential Policies and Bailouts: A Delicate Interaction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 181-197, October.
    3. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    4. Marius Andrei Zoican & Lucyna Anna Gornicka, 2014. "Banking Union Optimal Design under Moral Hazard," 2014 Papers pzo33, Job Market Papers.
    5. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    6. Ernesto Pastén, 2014. "Bailouts and Prudential Policies - A Delicate Interaction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 743, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Santos, João A.C. & Suarez, Javier, 2019. "Liquidity standards and the value of an informed lender of last resort," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 351-368.
    8. Shy, Oz & Stenbacka, Rune, 2017. "An overlapping generations model of taxpayer bailouts of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 71-80.
    9. Schroth, Josef, 2021. "Macroprudential policy with capital buffers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 296-311.
    10. Rob Nijskens & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2011. "The Lender of Last Resort: Liquidity Provision versus the Possibility of Bailout," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    12. Lopomo Beteto Wegner, Danilo, 2015. "Government insurance, information, and asset prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-183.
    13. Martynova, Natalya & Perotti, Enrico & Suarez, Javier, 2019. "Bank capital forbearance," ESRB Working Paper Series 93, European Systemic Risk Board.
    14. Biswas, Swarnava S. & Gómez, Fabiana, 2018. "Contagion through common borrowers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 125-132.
    15. Patrick Kehoe & V.V. Chari, 2010. "Bailouts, Time Inconsistency, and Optimal Regulation," 2010 Meeting Papers 527, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    17. Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Ratnovski, Lev, 2019. "Bailouts and systemic insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 166-177.
    18. Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2013. "Bank Bailouts, International Linkages, and Cooperation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 270-305, November.
    19. Bental, Benjamin & Demougin, Dominique, 2016. "Privatizing profits and socializing losses with smoothly operating capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 179-194.
    20. Marius A. Zoican & Lucyna A. Górnicka, 2013. "Banking Unions: Distorted Incentives and Efficient Bank Resolution," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-184/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 May 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bailouts; commitment; liquidity; banking; government policy; regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zbigniew Polański (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.