IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/15151.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Seam Bias, Multiple-State, Multiple-Spell Duration Models and the Employment Dynamics of Disadvantaged Women

Author

Listed:
  • John C. Ham
  • Xianghong Li
  • Lara Shore-Sheppard

Abstract

Panel surveys generally suffer from "seam bias"--too few transitions observed within reference periods and too many reported between interviews. Seam bias is likely to affect duration models severely since both the start date and the end date of a spell may be misreported. In this paper we examine the employment dynamics of disadvantaged single mothers in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) while correcting for seam bias in reported employment status. We develop parametric misreporting models for use in multi-state, multi-spell duration analysis; the models are identified if misreporting parameters are the same for fresh and left-censored spells of the same type. We extend these models to allow misreporting to depend on individual characteristics and for a certain fraction of the sample never to misreport. These extensions are informative about misreporting, but do not affect estimates of the hazard functions. We compare our results to two approaches used previously: i) using only data on the last month of reference periods and ii) adding a dummy variable for the last month of the reference periods. We find that there are important differences between our estimates and those obtained from ii), and very important differences between our estimates and those obtained from i). Finally, we also consider three alternative models of misreporting and are able to reject them based on aggregates of our micro data.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Ham & Xianghong Li & Lara Shore-Sheppard, 2009. "Seam Bias, Multiple-State, Multiple-Spell Duration Models and the Employment Dynamics of Disadvantaged Women," NBER Working Papers 15151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15151
    Note: CH LS TWP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15151.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John C. Ham & Lara D. Shore-Sheppard, 2005. "Did Expanding Medicaid Affect Welfare Participation?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 58(3), pages 452-470, April.
    2. Sarah Hamersma, 2011. "Why Don'T Eligible Firms Claim Hiring Subsidies? The Role Of Job Duration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 916-934, July.
    3. David C. Ribar, 2005. "Transitions from Welfare and the Employment Prospects of Low-Skill Workers," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 514-533, January.
    4. McCall, Brian P., 1996. "The Identifiability of the Mixed Proportional Hazards Model with Time-Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 733-738, October.
    5. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    6. Goudreau, Karen & Oberheu, Howard & Vaughan, Denton, 1984. "An Assessment of the Quality of Survey Reports of Income from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(2), pages 179-186, April.
    7. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    8. Janet Currie & Bruce C. Fallick, 1996. "The Minimum Wage and the Employment of Youth Evidence from the NLSY," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(2), pages 404-428.
    9. Baker, Michael & Melino, Angelo, 2000. "Duration dependence and nonparametric heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 357-393, June.
    10. Curtis Eberwein & John C. Ham & Robert J. Lalonde, 1997. "The Impact of Being Offered and Receiving Classroom Training on the Employment Histories of Disadvantaged Women: Evidence from Experimental Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 655-682.
    11. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    12. Charles J. Romeo, 2001. "Controlling for Seam Problems in Duration Model Estimates: With Application to the Current Population Survey and the Computer Aided Telephone Interview/Computer Aided Personal Interview Overlap Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(3), pages 467-499.
    13. Black, Dan & Sanders, Seth & Taylor, Lowell, 2003. "Measurement of Higher Education in the Census and Current Population Survey," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 545-554, January.
    14. Fitzgerald John M, 2004. "Measuring the Impact of Welfare Benefits on Welfare Durations: State Stratified Partial Likelihood and Fixed Effect Approaches," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-20, February.
    15. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jesse Rothstein & Robert G. Valletta, 2017. "Scraping by: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 880-908, September.
    2. Zhuan Pei, 2017. "Eligibility Recertification and Dynamic Opt-In Incentives in Income-Tested Social Programs: Evidence from Medicaid/CHIP," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 241-276, February.
    3. Meta Brown & Christopher J. Flinn & Andrew Schotter, 2011. "Real-Time Search in the Laboratory and the Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 948-974, April.
    4. Arulampalam, Wiji & Corradi, Valentina & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2014. "Modelling Heaped Duration Data: An Application to Neonatal Mortality," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 207, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. John C. Ham & Serkan Ozbeklik & Lara D. Shore-Sheppard, 2014. "Estimating Heterogeneous Takeup and Crowd-Out Responses to Existing Medicaid Income Limits and their Nonmarginal Expansions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(4), pages 872-905.
    6. Carol Osler & Thang Nguyen & Tanseli Savaser, 2011. "Asymmetric Information and the Foreign-Exchange Trades of Global Custody Banks," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Friedline, Terri & Johnson, Paul & Hughes, Robert, 2014. "Toward Healthy Balance Sheets: Are Savings Accounts a Gateway to Young Adults’ Asset Diversification and Accumulation?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(4), pages 359-389.
    8. David Neumark & Joanne Song & Patrick Button, 2015. "Does Protecting Older Workers from Discrimination Make It Harder to Get Hired? Revised with Additional Analysis of SIPP Data and Appendix of Disability Laws," Working Papers wp315, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    9. Purvi Sevak & Lucie Schmidt, 2007. "How do Immigrants Fare in Retirement?," Working Papers wp169, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.