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Estimating the Effect of Training on Unemployment Duration in West Germany - A Discrete Hazard-Rate Model with Instrumental Variables


  • R. Hujer

    (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University, Frankfurt/Main)

  • K.-O. Maurer

    (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University, Frankfurt/Main)

  • M. Wellner

    (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University, Frankfurt/Main)


We estimate a semiparametric single-risk discrete-time duration model to assess the effect of vocational training on the duration of unemployment spells. The data basis used in this study is the German Socio-Economic- Panel (GSOEP) for West Germany for the period from 1986 to 1994. To take into account a possible selection bias ac-tual participation in vocational training is instrumented using estimates of a random-effects probit model for the participation in qualification measures. Our main results show that training does have a significant short term effect of reducing unemploy-ment duration but that this effect does not persist in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Hujer & K.-O. Maurer & M. Wellner, 1997. "Estimating the Effect of Training on Unemployment Duration in West Germany - A Discrete Hazard-Rate Model with Instrumental Variables," Econometrics 9704001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9704001
    Note: 37 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    2. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Prey, Hedwig, 1996. "Training in East Germany: An evaluation of the effects on employment and wages," Discussion Papers 36, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    3. Michael Lechner, 2000. "An Evaluation of Public-Sector-Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(2), pages 347-375.
    4. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1995. "Assessing the Case for Social Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 85-110, Spring.
    5. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    6. Torelli, Nicola & Trivellato, Ugo, 1993. "Modelling inaccuracies in job-search duration data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 187-211, September.
    7. Ashenfelter, Orley & Card, David, 1985. "Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 648-660, November.
    8. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-764, May.
    9. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
    10. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Hsiao, C., 1992. "Logit and Probit Models," Papers 9210, Southern California - Department of Economics.
    12. Lechner, Michael, 1995. "Effects of continuous off-the-job training in East Germany after unification," ZEW Discussion Papers 95-27, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    13. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
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    15. Robert Moffitt, 1991. "Program Evaluation With Nonexperimental Data," Evaluation Review, , vol. 15(3), pages 291-314, June.
    16. Gritz, R. Mark, 1993. "The impact of training on the frequency and duration of employment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 21-51.
    17. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-381, Oct.-Dec..
    18. Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267.
    19. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Prey, Hedwig, 1995. "Assessing the impact of training on employment: The case of East Germany," Discussion Papers 23, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
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    21. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    22. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
    23. R. Hujer & K.-O. Maurer & M. Wellner, 1997. "The Impact of Training on Unemployment Duration in West Germany -Combining a Discrete Hazard Rate Model with Matching Techniques-," Econometrics 9705001, EconWPA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christensen, Björn, 2001. "Berufliche Weiterbildung und Arbeitsplatzrisiko: Ein Matching-Ansatz," Kiel Working Papers 1033, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Speckesser, Stefan, 2000. "Zur wissenschaftlichen Evaluation der Aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland : ein Überblick (On the scientific evaluation of Germany's active labour market policy : an overview)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 33(3), pages 357-370.
    3. Kraus, Florian & Puhani, Patrick A. & Steiner, Viktor, 1997. "Employment Effects of Publicly Financed Training Programs The East German Experience," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-33, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    4. Prey, Hedwig, 1997. "Beschäftigungswirkungen von öffentlich geförderten Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen: Eine Paneluntersuchung für Westdeutschland," Discussion Papers 41, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    5. repec:iab:iabmit:v:33:i:3:p:357-370 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search


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