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Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates

  • Antonella Cavallo

    ()

  • Antonio Ribba

    ()

The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro-area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in this paper we show that this condition is satisfied only for a small number of countries, including France and Italy. Better convergence results for inflation differentials are, instead, found for the USA.

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Paper provided by University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi" in its series Center for Economic Research (RECent) with number 082.

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Length: pages 26
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mod:recent:082
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.recent.unimore.it/

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  1. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 0388, European Central Bank.
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  11. Michael G. Arghyrou & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2008. "The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain," Documentos de Trabajo dt2008-05, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
  12. PIROVANO, Mara & VAN POECK, André, 2011. "Eurozone inflation differentials and the ECB," Working Papers 2011014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  13. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
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  16. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  17. Rogers, John H., 2007. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: How close is Europe to the USA?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 785-796, April.
  18. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
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