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Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates

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  • Antonella Cavallo

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  • Antonio Ribba

    ()

Abstract

The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro-area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in this paper we show that this condition is satisfied only for a small number of countries, including France and Italy. Better convergence results for inflation differentials are, instead, found for the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2012. "Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 082, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:recent:082
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2015. "Common macroeconomic shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Euro area countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 377-392.
    2. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:5:p:942-962 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation differentials; euro area; structural Cointegrated VARs; permanent-transitory decompositions;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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