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Dinámica inflacionaria regional y el esquema de metas de inflación en el Perú

Author

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  • Winkelried, Diego
  • Gutiérrez, José

Abstract

La política monetaria del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) se ha basado en un esquema de metas de inflación por más de una década, utilizando la inflación de Lima Metropolitana como medida operacional. Un indicador alternativo es la inflación nacional, cuya calidad estadística y disponibilidad en tiempo real han mejorado sustancialmente en los últimos años. Dados estos indicadores alternativos cabe preguntarse: ¿Cuáles han sido las implicancias para la inflación nacional de haber monitoreado la inflación en Lima? ¿Monitorear la inflación nacional afectaría significativamente el funcionamiento de la política monetaria en el Perú? Para responder a estas preguntas, se estima un modelo de corrección de errores entre las inflaciones regionales y se investiga cómo se propagan los choques inflacionarios a lo largo del país. El modelo incorpora (i) restricciones de agregación, donde cada inflación regional es afectada por un agregado de las inflaciones de las regiones vecinas y (ii) restricciones de largo plazo que permiten identificar una tendencia común en el sistema. Los resultados indican que un choque en la inflación de Lima se transmite rápidamente a las inflaciones en provincias, y explica gran parte de su variabilidad. Con ello, se concluye que al monitorear la inflación en Lima, el BCRP ha contribuido con la estabilidad de la inflación nacional.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkelried, Diego & Gutiérrez, José, 2012. "Dinámica inflacionaria regional y el esquema de metas de inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 24, pages 79-98.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-24-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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