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Dinámica inflacionaria regional y el esquema de metas de inflación en el Perú

  • Winkelried, Diego
  • Gutiérrez, José

La política monetaria del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) se ha basado en un esquema de metas de inflación por más de una década, utilizando la inflación de Lima Metropolitana como medida operacional. Un indicador alternativo es la inflación nacional, cuya calidad estadística y disponibilidad en tiempo real han mejorado sustancialmente en los últimos años. Dados estos indicadores alternativos cabe preguntarse: ¿Cuáles han sido las implicancias para la inflación nacional de haber monitoreado la inflación en Lima? ¿Monitorear la inflación nacional afectaría significativamente el funcionamiento de la política monetaria en el Perú? Para responder a estas preguntas, se estima un modelo de corrección de errores entre las inflaciones regionales y se investiga cómo se propagan los choques inflacionarios a lo largo del país. El modelo incorpora (i) restricciones de agregación, donde cada inflación regional es afectada por un agregado de las inflaciones de las regiones vecinas y (ii) restricciones de largo plazo que permiten identificar una tendencia común en el sistema. Los resultados indican que un choque en la inflación de Lima se transmite rápidamente a las inflaciones en provincias, y explica gran parte de su variabilidad. Con ello, se concluye que al monitorear la inflación en Lima, el BCRP ha contribuido con la estabilidad de la inflación nacional.

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File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/24/ree-24-winkelried-gutierrez.pdf
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Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 24 ()
Pages: 79-98

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-24-05
Contact details of provider: Postal: Jr. Miro Quesada 441, Lima
Phone: 427-6250 ext. 3841
Fax: 426-6125
Web page: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe

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