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Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China

Author

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  • Katsushi S. Imai

    (Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester (UK) and RIEB, Kobe University (Japan))

  • Jing You

    (School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, China)

Abstract

The objective of our study is to identify patterns and causes of households' transitions in and out of poverty using the long household panel data on rural China in the period 1989-2009. We propose a discrete-time multi-spell duration model that not only corrects for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across transitions and various destinations within the transition, but also addresses the endogeneity due to dynamic selection associated with household's livelihood strategies. Duration dependence is generally found to be negative for both poverty exit and entry. The household choosing either farming or out-migration as a main livelihood strategy was more likely to escape from the persistent poverty than those taking local non-agricultural employment. Overall, the present study emphasises the central role of agriculture in helping the chronically poor escape from poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsushi S. Imai & Jing You, 2013. "Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-16, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2013-16
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    File URL: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2013-16.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Tingting Li & Hualou Long & Shuangshuang Tu & Yanfei Wang, 2015. "Analysis of Income Inequality Based on Income Mobility for Poverty Alleviation in Rural China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Mingyue Liu & Xiaolong Feng & Sangui Wang & Huanguang Qiu, 2020. "China’s poverty alleviation over the last 40 years: successes and challenges," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(1), pages 209-228, January.
    3. Mani, Subha & Mitra, Sophie & Sambamoorthi, Usha, 2018. "Dynamics in health and employment: Evidence from Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 297-309.
    4. Jing You & Sangui Wang & Laurence Roope, 2014. "Multi-dimensional Intertemporal Poverty in Rural China," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-36, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Katsushi S. Imai & Bilal Malaeb, 2016. "Asia's Rural-urban Disparity in the Context of Growing Inequality," Discussion Paper Series DP2016-29, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    6. Jing You & Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha, 2014. "Decoding the Growth-Nutrition Nexus in China: Inequality, Uncertainty and Food Insecurity," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 20714, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    7. Anqi Zhang & Katsushi S. Imai, 2022. "Does a Universal Pension Reduce Elderly Poverty in China?," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    8. Luo, Jay, 2019. "Poverty alleviation research in rural China: Three decades and counting," SocArXiv gmuav, Center for Open Science.
    9. Alma Kudebayeva, 2018. "Chronic Poverty in Kazakhstan," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp627, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    10. Raghbendra Jha & Katsushi S. Imai & Raghav Gaiha, 2014. "Poverty nutrition traps," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 10, pages 246-259, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. You, Jing, 2014. "Risk, under-investment in agricultural assets and dynamic asset poverty in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 27-45.
    12. Jing You & Sangui Wang & Laurence Roope, 2018. "Intertemporal deprivation in rural china: income and nutrition," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(1), pages 61-101, March.
    13. Yu Chen & Sylvie Démurger, 2014. "Pro-rural Policies, Income, and Inequality: Evaluating a Cash-for-Work Program in Rural China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 13(3), pages 87-114, Fall.
    14. You, Jing & Kontoleon, Andreas & Wang, Sangui, 2015. "Identifying a Sustainable Pathway to Household Multi-dimensional Poverty Reduction in Rural China," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211865, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Anqi Zhang & Katsushi S. Imai, 2022. "Does a Universal Pension Reduce Elderly Poverty in China?," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2203, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Imai, S.K. & Malaeb, B., 2018. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 27 - Asia’s rural-urban disparity in the context of growing inequality," IFAD Research Series 280076, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    17. Zhang, Yumei & Filipski, Mateusz & Chen, Kevin Z. & Diao, Xinshen, 2015. "Who is Poor this Year? Understanding Fluctuations in Poverty Status in Three Chinese Villages," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212604, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Zhang, Yumei & Filipski, Mateusz & Chen, Kevin & Diao, Xinshen, 2014. "Poverty Exit and Entry in Poor Villages in China," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 173100, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty Transition; Discrete-time duration model; Correlated unobserved heterogeneity; Dynamic selection; Rural China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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