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Evaluating poverty duration and transition: a spell-approach to rural China


  • J. You


This article uses a discrete-time multivariate duration model to study poverty transition in rural China between 1989 and 2006. The analysis identifies nonlinear negative duration-dependence for both exit and re-entry rates of poverty. There is significant difference in hazard rates of exit and re-entry associated with geographic location and educational level of households, but less related to gender, occupation or ethnic background of household head. The factors facilitating households' ending a poverty spell are found to be education, land ownership, asset accumulation, health insurance and outmigration, whereas larger family size and dependence ratio may reduce the chance of exit.

Suggested Citation

  • J. You, 2011. "Evaluating poverty duration and transition: a spell-approach to rural China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1377-1382.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:18:y:2011:i:14:p:1377-1382 DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2010.537625

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    2. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2008. "Assessing inflation targeting through intervention analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 293-317, April.
    3. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
    4. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 447-447.
    6. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Alfred M. & Ramesh, M., 2014. "Poverty Reduction in Urban China: The Impact of Cash Transfers," MPRA Paper 54358, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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