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Evaluating poverty duration and transition:A spell-approach to rural China

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  • Jing You

Abstract

This article uses a discrete-time multivariate duration model to study poverty transition in rural China between 1989 and 2006. The analysis identifies nonlinear negative duration-dependence for both exit and re-entry rates of poverty. There is significant difference in hazard rates of exit and reentry associated with geographic location and educational level of households, but less related to gender, occupation or ethnic background of household head. The factors facilitating households’ ending a poverty spell are found to be education, land ownership, asset accumulation, health insurance and out-migration, while larger family size and dependence ratio may reduce the chance of exit. This article is forthcoming in Applied Economics Letters, 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing You, 2010. "Evaluating poverty duration and transition:A spell-approach to rural China," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 13410, GDI, The University of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:bwp:bwppap:13410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "China is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4621, The World Bank.
    2. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri, 2007. "The Dynamics and Persistence of Poverty: Evidence from Italy," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 63, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    3. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010. "The Developing World is Poorer than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625.
    4. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Determinants of transient and chronic poverty : evidence from rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1936, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Alfred M. & Ramesh, M., 2014. "Poverty Reduction in Urban China: The Impact of Cash Transfers," MPRA Paper 54358, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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