IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp10597.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Perfect Storm: Graduating in a Recession in a Segmented Labor Market

Author

Listed:
  • Fernández-Kranz, Daniel

    (IE Business School, Madrid)

  • Rodríguez-Planas, Núria

    (Queens College, CUNY)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of entry labor-market conditions on workers' career in Spain, a country well known for its highly segmented labor market and rigid labor-market institutions. In contrast with more flexible labor markets, we find that the annual earnings losses of individuals without a university degree are greater and more persistent than those of college graduates. For workers without a college degree, the effect is driven by a lower likelihood of employment. For college graduates, the negative impact on earnings is driven by both a higher probability of non-employment, and employment in jobs with fixed-term contracts. While a negative shock increases mobility of college graduates across firms and industries, there is no earnings recovery, just secondary labor-market job churning. Our results are consistent with tight regulations of the Spanish labor market such as binding minimum wages and downward wage rigidity caused by collective bargaining agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Kranz, Daniel & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2017. "The Perfect Storm: Graduating in a Recession in a Segmented Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10597, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10597
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp10597.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hershbein Brad J., 2012. "Graduating High School in a Recession: Work, Education, and Home Production," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. Pierre Cahuc, 2014. "Short-time work compensations and employment," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-11, May.
    3. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    4. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    5. Julián Messina & Cláudia Filipa Duarte & Mario Izquierdo & Philip Du Caju & Niels Lynggård Hansen, 2010. "The Incidence of Nominal and Real Wage Rigidity: An Individual-Based Sectoral Approach," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 487-496, 04-05.
    6. Samuel Bentolila & Juan Jose Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, 2008. "Two-tier Employment Protection Reforms: The Spanish Experience," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(4), pages 49-56, December.
    7. Paul J. Devereux & Robert A. Hart, 2006. "Real Wage Cyclicality of Job Stayers, Within-Company Job Movers, and Between-Company Job Movers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 60(1), pages 105-119, October.
    8. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April.
    9. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    10. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2007. "Wage Growth Implications of Fixed-Term Employment: An Analysis by Contract Duration and Job Mobility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 829-847, October.
    11. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    12. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-688, August.
    13. Juan José Dolado & Florentino Felgueroso & Francisco Jimeno, 1999. "Los problemas del mercado de trabajo juvenil en España: empleo, formación y salarios mínimos," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 43(01), pages 136-157.
    14. Mario García-Ferreira & Ernesto Villanueva, 2007. "Employment risk and household formation: evidence from differences in firing costs," Working Papers 0737, Banco de España.
    15. Andrés Maroto-Sánchez & Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura, 2013. "Recent cyclical movements in the spanish productivity. An aggregate and sectoral analysis," Working Papers 06/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    16. Illoong Kwon & Eva Meyersson Milgrom & Seiwoon Hwang, 2010. "Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages: Evidence from Sweden and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(3).
    17. Paulino Font & Mario Izquierdo & Sergio Puente, 2015. "Real wage responsiveness to unemployment in Spain: asymmetries along the business cycle," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Rosella Gardecki & David Neumark, 1998. "Order from Chaos? The Effects of Early Labor Market Experiences on Adult Labor Market Outcomes," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 51(2), pages 299-322, January.
    19. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    20. Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed, 2006. "Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labor Market Entry Affect Future Employment Prospects?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 193-210, May.
    21. Jimeno, Juan F. & Bentolila, Samuel, 1998. "Regional unemployment persistence (Spain, 1976-1994)," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 25-51, March.
    22. Darren Grant, 2003. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Surveys," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(3), pages 393-408, April.
    23. Yuji Genda & Ayako Kondo & Souichi Ohta, 2010. "Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
    24. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2014. "The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 705-738, July.
    25. McLaughlin, Kenneth J & Bils, Mark, 2001. "Interindustry Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 94-135, January.
    26. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, 2000. "Work Transitions into and Out of Involuntary Temporary Employment in a Segmented Market: Evidence from Spain," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(2), pages 309-325, January.
    27. repec:bde:journl:v:06:y:2015:p:07 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Fernández-Kranz Daniel & Aitor Lacuesta & Núria Rodríguez-Planas, 2013. "The Motherhood Earnings Dip: Evidence from Administrative Records," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(1), pages 169-197.
    29. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter, 2010. "Does Wage Persistence Matter for Employment Fluctuations? Evidence from Displaced Workers," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-21, July.
    30. Mario Izquierdo & Sergio Puente, 2015. "Wage response to changes in the cyclical situation: an estimate based on MCVL social security administrative labour records," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUN, pages 21-25, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    2. Berge, Wiljan van den, 2018. "Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-96.
    3. Eleanor Jawon Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2019. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Upjohn Working Papers 19-312, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    4. Fraser Summerfield & Ioannis Theodossiou, 2017. "The Effects Of Macroeconomic Conditions At Graduation On Overeducation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1370-1387, July.
    5. Toman Barsbai & Andreas Steinmayr & Christoph Winter, 2022. "Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the U.S," Working Papers 2022-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Venke Furre Haaland, 2016. "The lost generation: Effects of youth labor market opportunities on long-term labor market outcomes," Discussion Papers 835, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Ayako Kondo, 2015. "Differential effects of graduating during a recession across gender and race," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.
    8. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Shvartsman, Elena, 2018. "The State of the Economy at Graduation, Wages, and Catch-up Paths: Evidence from Switzerland," IZA Discussion Papers 11622, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Päällysaho, Miika Matias, 2017. "The Short- and Long-Term Effects of Graduating During a Recession: Evidence from Finland," Working Papers 96, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Liu, Kai & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sørensen, Erik Ø., 2016. "Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 3-17.
    12. Haaland, Venke Furre, 2013. "The Lost Generation: Effects of Youth Labor Market Opportunities on Long-Term Labor Market Outcomes," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/8, University of Stavanger.
    13. Samuel Bentolila & Florentino Felgueroso & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2022. "Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-49, May.
    14. Wiljan van den Berge & Arne Brouwers, 2017. "A lost generation? The early career effects of graduating during a recession," CPB Discussion Paper 356, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. Wiljan van den Berge & Arne Brouwers, 2017. "A lost generation? The early career effects of graduating during a recession," CPB Discussion Paper 356.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Eleanor J. Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 637, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    17. Leombruni, Roberto & Razzolini, Tiziano & Serti, Francesco, 2015. "The Hidden Cost of Labor Market Entry During Recession: Unemployment Rate at Entry and Occupational Injury Risk of Young Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 8968, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Choi, Eleanor J. & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 13009, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2010. "The Impact of Labor Market Entry Condition on Initial Job Assignment, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wages," NRN working papers 2010-15, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    20. Sjögren, Anna & Mattias , Mattias & Hall, Caroline & Holmlund, Helena & Lundin, Martin & Mühlrad, Hanna & Öckert, Björn, 2021. "Swedish children and youth during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2021:3, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    full and dynamic effect of poor labor market conditions at entry; fixed-term and permanent contract; wage rigidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10597. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.