IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/uwp/jhriss/v45y2010iii1p772-808.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages: Evidence from Sweden and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Illoong Kwon
  • Eva Meyersson Milgrom
  • Seiwoon Hwang

Abstract

This paper studies the long-term effects of the business cycle on workers’ future promotions and wages. Using the Swedish employer-employee matched data, we find that a cohort of workers entering the labor market during a boom gets promoted faster and reaches higher ranks. This procyclical promotion cohort effect persists even after controlling for workers’ initial jobs, and explains at least half of the wage cohort effects that previous studies have focused on. We repeat the same analyses using personnel records from a single U.S. company, and obtain the same qualitative results.

Suggested Citation

  • Illoong Kwon & Eva Meyersson Milgrom & Seiwoon Hwang, 2010. "Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages: Evidence from Sweden and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(3).
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:45:y:2010:iii:1:p772-808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jhr.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/45/3/772
    Download Restriction: A subscripton is required to access pdf files. Pay per article is available.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lazear, Edward P & Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "Rank-Order Tournaments as Optimum Labor Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 841-864, October.
    2. Jonas Agell & Per Lundborg, 2003. "Survey Evidence on Wage Rigidity and Unemployment: Sweden in the 1990s," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(1), pages 15-30, March.
    3. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2006. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates," NBER Working Papers 12159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-688, August.
    5. Aghion, Philippe & Tirole, Jean, 1997. "Formal and Real Authority in Organizations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-29, February.
    6. Devereux, Paul J, 2000. "Task Assignment over the Business Cycle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 98-124, January.
    7. Gary Solon & Warren Whatley & Ann Huff Stevens, 1997. "Wage Changes and Intrafirm Job Mobility over the Business Cycle: Two Case Studies," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(3), pages 402-415, April.
    8. Michael Waldman, 1984. "Job Assignments, Signalling, and Efficiency," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(2), pages 255-267, Summer.
    9. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1992. "Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-1391.
    10. Paul Oyer, 2006. "Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 143-160, Summer.
    11. Canice Prendergast, 1993. "The Role of Promotion in Inducing Specific Human Capital Acquisition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 523-534.
    12. Illoong Kwon, 2006. "Incentives, wages, and promotions: theory and evidence," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(1), pages 100-120, March.
    13. Meyersson Milgrom, Eva M & Petersen, Trond & Snartland, Vemund, 2001. " Equal Pay for Equal Work? Evidence from Sweden and a Comparison with Norway and the U.S," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(4), pages 559-583, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cutler, David M. & Huang, Wei & Lleras-Muney, Adriana, 2015. "When does education matter? The protective effect of education for cohorts graduating in bad times," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 63-73.
    2. Leombruni, Roberto & Razzolini, Tiziano & Serti, Francesco, 2015. "The Hidden Cost of Labor Market Entry During Recession: Unemployment Rate at Entry and Occupational Injury Risk of Young Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 8968, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Russo, Giovanni & Hassink, Wolter, 2011. "Multiple Glass Ceilings," IZA Discussion Papers 5828, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    5. Kwon, Illoong & Meyersson Milgrom, Eva M., 2014. "The significance of firm and occupation specific human capital for hiring and promotions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 162-173.
    6. Bossler, Mario & Grunau, Philipp, 2016. "Asymmetric information in external versus internal promotions," IAB Discussion Paper 201611, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Taylor, Mark P., 2013. "The labour market impacts of leaving education when unemployment is high: evidence from Britain," ISER Working Paper Series 2013-12, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2014. "The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 705-738, July.
    9. repec:eti:dpaper:13029 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2010. "The Impact of Labor Market Entry Condition on Initial Job Assignment, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wages," NRN working papers 2010-15, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    11. Boffy-Ramirez, Ernest, 2016. "The Heterogeneous Impacts of Business Cycles on Educational Attainment," IZA Discussion Papers 10167, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Jin, Xin, 2014. "The Signaling Role of Note Being Promoted: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 58484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Giovanni Russo & Wolter Hassink, 2012. "Multiple Glass Ceilings," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 892-915, October.
    14. Xin Jin, 2014. "The Signaling Role of Not Being Promoted: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 0314, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    15. Otto Kässi, 2014. "Earnings dynamics of men and women in Finland: permanent inequality versus earnings instability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 451-477, March.
    16. Päällysaho, Miika Matias, 2017. "The Short- and Long-Term Effects of Graduating During a Recession: Evidence from Finland," Working Papers 96, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Bart Cockx, 2016. "Do youths graduating in a recession incur permanent losses?," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 281-281, August.
    18. Luca Flóra Drucker & Daniel Horn, 2016. "Decreased tracking, increased earning: Evidence from the comprehensive Polish educational reform of 1999," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1602, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    19. Fernández-Kranz, Daniel & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2017. "The Perfect Storm: Graduating in a Recession in a Segmented Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10597, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    20. Maclean, Johanna Catherine, 2013. "The health effects of leaving school in a bad economy," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 951-964.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:45:y:2010:iii:1:p772-808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://jhr.uwpress.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.