IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2018-027.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Author

Listed:
  • Mokhtar Benlamine
  • Mr. Ales Bulir
  • Meryem Farouki
  • Ágnes Horváth
  • Faical Hossaini
  • Hasnae El Idrissi
  • Zineb Iraoui
  • Mihály Kovács
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Anass Maaroufi
  • Katalin Szilágyi
  • Mohamed Taamouti
  • David Vávra

Abstract

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Mokhtar Benlamine & Mr. Ales Bulir & Meryem Farouki & Ágnes Horváth & Faical Hossaini & Hasnae El Idrissi & Zineb Iraoui & Mihály Kovács & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Anass Maaroufi & Katalin Szilágyi & Moha, 2018. "Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 2018/027, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45630
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ali Alichi & Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Joshua Felman & Irene Feng & Charles Freedman & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Evan C Tanner & David Vávra & Hou Wang, 2015. "Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic," IMF Working Papers 2015/074, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2014. "Financial Crises in DSGE Models: A Prototype Model," IMF Working Papers 2014/057, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1998. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 353-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    7. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Ireland: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/077, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Sara, BENAZZI & Imane, ROUIESSI, 2017. "Analyse de la concurrence bancaire au Maroc : Approche de Panzar et Rosse," Document de travail 2017-1, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    10. Clark, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David, 2001. "An Evaluation of Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in a Model with Capacity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 42-64, February.
    11. Mr. Peter B. Clark & Mr. Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1995. "Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism: Forward-Looking Versus Myopic Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 1995/075, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2015. "Rounding the Corners of the Policy Trilemma: Sources of Monetary Policy Autonomy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 33-66, October.
    13. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    14. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova, 2013. "Remittances and their Macroeconomic Impact," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis: A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 2006/081, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mohamed BOUZAHZAH & Radouane BACHAR, 2014. "Exchange Rate Policy in Morocco and Persistence of Real Exchange Rate Misalignments," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 122-134.
    17. Mr. Maurice Obstfeld & Kevin Clinton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Ms. Yulia Ustyugova & Hou Wang, 2016. "How to Improve Inflation Targeting in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2016/192, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Eyal Argov & David Rose & Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 2007/207, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chafik, Omar & Achour, Aya, 2022. "Cycle financier, cycle réel et transmission de la politique monétaire au Maroc," Document de travail 2022-2, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    2. Andres Gonzalez & Alexander Guarin & Diego A. Rodriguez-Guzman & Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2020. "4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1106, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Bennouna, Hicham, 2019. "Interest rate pass-through in Morocco: Evidence from bank-level survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 142-157.
    4. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2019. "Monetary Policy, Growth and Employment in Developing Areas: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12197, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Chafik, Omar & Mikou, Mohammed & Slaoui, Yassine & Motl, Tomas, 2022. "A DSGE model for macroprudential policy in Morocco," Document de travail 2022-3, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    6. Nicolas Moumni & Salma Dasser, 2020. "Moroccan Dirham Flexibilization and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Quest for Grail?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 132-140.
    7. Karel Musil & Mikhail Pranovich & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2018. "Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2018/254, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2019. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 279-293, May.
    3. Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2017. "Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 114-130.
    4. Ali Alichi & Rania A. Al-Mashat & Hayk Avetisyan & Mr. Jaromir Benes & Olivier Bizimana & Aram Butavyan & Mr. Robert Ford & Narek Ghazaryan & Vahagn Grigoryan & Mane Harutyunyan & Anahit Hovhannisyan , 2018. "Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Papers 2018/152, International Monetary Fund.
    5. J. Scott Davis & Ignacio Presno, 2014. "Capital controls as an instrument of monetary policy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 171, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Cordella, Tito & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "What makes a currency procyclical? An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 240-259.
    7. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Simrit Kaur & Aditya Vikram, 2013. "Economic impact of trade openness and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing Asia," International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 341-370.
    9. Lu, Dong & Liu, Jialin & Zhou, Hang, 2022. "Global financial conditions, capital flows and the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 22-40.
    11. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    12. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2015/132, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Ali Alichi & Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Jarkko Turunen & Hou Wang, 2015. "Avoiding Dark Corners: A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States," IMF Working Papers 2015/134, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Georgios Georgiadis & Arnaud Mehl, 2015. "Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness," Globalization Institute Working Papers 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 2014. "Never Say Never: Commentary on a Policymaker’s Reflections," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 656-693, November.
    17. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 2016/108, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities 1998–2013," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    20. Georgiadis, Georgios & Zhu, Feng, 2021. "Foreign-currency exposures and the financial channel of exchange rates: Eroding monetary policy autonomy in small open economies?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.