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Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Author

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  • Mr. Jan Vlcek
  • Mikhail Pranovich
  • Karel Musil

Abstract

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jan Vlcek & Mikhail Pranovich & Karel Musil, 2018. "Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2018/254, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/254
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rahul Anand & Kithsiri Ehelepola & Chandranath Amarasekara & Hemantha Ekanayake & Vishuddhi Jayawickrema & Tharindi Nugawela & Csaba Kober & Sujeetha Jegajeevan & Rasika Yatigammana & Adam Remo & Poon, 2018. "An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2018/149, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 2019. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 52(4), pages 537-571.
    3. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Tomás Holub & Kevin Clinton & Hou Wang & Tibor Hlédik, 2017. "Czech Magic: Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at the CNB," IMF Working Papers 2017/021, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Ales Bulir & Mr. Douglas Laxton & David Vávra & Meryem Farouki & Mokhtar Benlamine & Ágnes Horváth & Faical Hossaini & Hasnae El Idrissi & Anass Maaroufi & Mihály Kovács & Katalin Szilágyi & Zineb, 2018. "Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 2018/027, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jaromír Beneš & Jaromír Hurník & David Vávra, 2008. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting: Modeling the Exchange Rate in Reduced-Form New Keynesian Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(03-04), pages 166-194, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andres Gonzalez & Alexander Guarin & Diego A. Rodriguez-Guzman & Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2020. "4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1106, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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