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Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region

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  • Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
  • Ms. Darlena Tartari Schwegler
  • Carlos Caceres

Abstract

This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. Governments are another driving force of inflation dynamics mainly through controlled prices and the role of capital expenditure in domestic activity. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in noncore inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Ms. Darlena Tartari Schwegler & Carlos Caceres, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 2011/232, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/232
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    2. Kpodar, Kangni & Liu, Boya, 2022. "The distributional implications of the impact of fuel price increases on inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Dennis Nsafoah & Cosmas Dery & Ayobami E. Ilori, 2025. "Revisiting the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa after COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1073-1112, March.
    4. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    5. Eric Girardin & Cheikh A. T. Sall, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants, Co-movements and Spatial Interactions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 295-320, April.
    6. Oulatta, Moon, 2016. "A Generic Theory of Price Determination," MPRA Paper 76014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Dridi, Jemma & Unsal, Filiz D. & Williams, Oral H., 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 71-84.
    8. BIKAI, J. Landry & BATOUMEN M., Hardit & FOSSOUO, Armand, 2016. "Determinants of inflation in CEMAC: the role of money," MPRA Paper 89111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ntita Ntita, Jean & Kazadi Ntita, François & Ntanga Ntita, Jean de Dieu, 2017. "Determinants De L'Inflation Dans Les Pays De La Communaute Economique Et Monetaire De L'Afrique Centrale, (Cemac) [Determinants Of Inflation In Central African Economic And Monetary Community (Caem," MPRA Paper 92902, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2019.
    10. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    11. Franses, Philip Hans & Janssens, Eva, 2018. "Inflation in Africa, 1960–2015," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 261-292.
    12. richelmy ETENDINO NKOMBE, 2023. "déterminants de l'inflation dans la zone CEMAC," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 14(1), pages 64-82, June.
    13. Abou Hamia, Mohamad A., 2024. "Why developing countries need a new central bank paradigm: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa region," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).

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