IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

How much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?

  • Bartosz Mackowiak

We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea interest rate shocks can account for a significant fraction of the external spillover effects. We conclude that theoretical models of advanced transition economies and policy rules for these economies should feature a prominent role for external shocks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2005-061.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2005-061.

as
in new window

Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-061
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin

Phone: +49-30-2093-5708
Fax: +49-30-2093-5617
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Czech Republic; Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 02/168, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Peter Christoffersen & Torsten Sløk & Robert Wescott, 2001. "Is inflation targeting feasible in Poland?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, March.
  3. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
  4. L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  5. Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
  7. Jae-Young Kim, 1998. "Large Sample Properties of Posterior Densities, Bayesian Information Criterion and the Likelihood Principle in Nonstationary Time Series Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 359-380, March.
  8. Brada, Josef C. & Ktan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  9. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 0052, European Central Bank.
  10. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  12. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
  14. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
  15. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-99, November.
  16. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
  17. Siklos, Pierre L. & Abel, Istvan, 2002. "Is Hungary ready for inflation targeting?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 309-333, December.
  18. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
  19. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2005. "Real and monetary convergence between the European Union's core and recent member countries: A rolling cointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 249-270, January.
  20. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
  22. David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  23. Kutan, Ali M. & Brada, Josef C., 1999. "The evolution of monetary policy in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 19-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  24. Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
  25. Philippe Robert-Demontrond & R. Ringoot, 2004. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00081823, HAL.
  26. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
  27. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
  28. Marco Del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2000. "Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? the case of Mexico," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  29. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2005. "How Synchronized are Central and East European Economies with the Euro Area? Evidence from a Structural Factor model�," TWI Research Paper Series 14, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universit�t Konstanz.
  30. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
  31. Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2001. "The endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria, intraindustry trade and EMU enlargement," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  32. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88.
  33. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  34. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2001. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," LICOS Discussion Papers 10601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  35. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Republic Of Poland; Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 02/128, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.