IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hku/wpaper/201633.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Low-Carbon Futures for Shenzhen’s Urban Passenger Transport System

Author

Listed:
  • Shengyuan Zhang

    (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Jimin Zhao

    (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
    Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

China has established ambitious CO2 emission reduction targets, and sustainable urban passenger transport is a key to reaching them. Shenzhen, one of China’s leading cities, has the potential to be a model for achieving low-carbon development. Using an Activity Structure–Intensity–Fuel (ASIF) framework and a human-based approach that incorporates individual transport behavior using data from a travel diary survey in Shenzhen in 2014, we model different scenarios for future urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 2014 to 2050. We find that if Shenzhen successfully constructs urban structures with greater density around the public transportation network, and finds effective ways to restrict vehicle ownership and use (either through mandatory schemes or pricing) while making substantial investments in the walking and cycling environment, it is possible for total urban passenger transport emissions to peak at 4.3 MtCO2 in 2025, and individual emissions would fall by over 65% compared to its 2014 level, reaching 118 kgCO2/person by 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengyuan Zhang & Jimin Zhao, 2016. "Low-Carbon Futures for Shenzhen’s Urban Passenger Transport System," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2016-33, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Jun 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:hku:wpaper:201633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://iems.ust.hk/assets/publications/working-papers-2016/iemswp2016-33.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas W. Davis, 2008. "The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(1), pages 38-81, February.
    2. Shoup, Donald C., 2006. "Cruising for parking," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 479-486, November.
    3. Phang, Sock-Yong & Wong, Wing-Keung & Chia, Ngee-Choon, 1996. "Singapore's experience with car quotas : Issues and policy processes," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 145-153, October.
    4. Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian & Chock, David & Chai, Qinhu & Zhang, Aling, 2012. "Well-to-wheels life-cycle analysis of alternative fuels and vehicle technologies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 296-307.
    5. Sterner, Thomas, 2007. "Fuel taxes: An important instrument for climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3194-3202, June.
    6. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1978. "A Conditional Probit Model for Qualitative Choice: Discrete Decisions Recognizing Interdependence and Heterogeneous Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 403-426, March.
    7. Cervero, Robert & Day, Jennifer, 2008. "Suburbanization and transit-oriented development in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 315-323, September.
    8. Wang, Rui, 2010. "Shaping urban transport policies in China: Will copying foreign policies work?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 147-152, May.
    9. Gallego, Francisco & Montero, Juan-Pablo & Salas, Christian, 2013. "The effect of transport policies on car use: A bundling model with applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 85-97.
    10. Wang, Rui & Yuan, Quan, 2013. "Parking practices and policies under rapid motorization: The case of China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-116.
    11. Weinberger, Rachel, 2012. "Death by a thousand curb-cuts: Evidence on the effect of minimum parking requirements on the choice to drive," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-102.
    12. Lu, Xuedong & Pas, Eric I., 1999. "Socio-demographics, activity participation and travel behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-18, January.
    13. Chen, Xiaojie & Zhao, Jinhua, 2013. "Bidding to drive: Car license auction policy in Shanghai and its public acceptance," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 39-52.
    14. Shoup, Donald C., 2006. "Cruising for Parking," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt55s7079f, University of California Transportation Center.
    15. Glazer, Amihai & Niskanen, Esko, 1992. "Parking fees and congestion," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 123-132, March.
    16. Skippon, Stephen & Veeraraghavan, Shoba & Ma, Hongrui & Gadd, Paul & Tait, Nigel, 2012. "Combining technology development and behaviour change to meet CO2 cumulative emission budgets for road transport: Case studies for the USA and Europe," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1405-1423.
    17. Edward Calthrop & Stef Proost & Kurt van Dender, 2000. "Parking Policies and Road Pricing," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 63-76, January.
    18. Wang, James J. & Liu, Qian, 2014. "Understanding the parking supply mechanism in China: a case study of Shenzhen," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 77-88.
    19. Marsden, Greg, 2006. "The evidence base for parking policies--a review," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 447-457, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Rui & Yuan, Quan, 2013. "Parking practices and policies under rapid motorization: The case of China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-116.
    2. Inci, Eren, 2015. "A review of the economics of parking," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 50-63.
    3. Khordagui, Nagwa, 2019. "Parking prices and the decision to drive to work: Evidence from California," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 479-495.
    4. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan & Reimann, Felix, 2021. "On employer-paid parking and parking (cash-out) policy: A formal synthesis of different perspectives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 499-516.
    5. van Ommeren, Jos & Wentink, Derk & Dekkers, Jasper, 2011. "The real price of parking policy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 25-31, July.
    6. Maas, Alexander & Watson, Philip, 2018. "Enthusiasm curbed: Home value implications of curbside parking rights," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 705-711.
    7. Krishnamurthy, Chandra Kiran B. & Ngo, Nicole S., 2020. "The effects of smart-parking on transit and traffic: Evidence from SFpark," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. Hymel, Kent, 2014. "Do parking fees affect retail sales? Evidence from Starbucks," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-233.
    9. Qian Liu & Mingjian Zhu & Zuopeng Xiao, 2019. "Workplace Parking Provision and Built Environments: Improving Context-Specific Parking Standards Towards Sustainable Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, February.
    10. Juan Li & Jing Ye & Qinglian He & Chunfu Shao, 2016. "A Novel Scheme to Relieve Parking Pressure at Tourist Attractions on Holidays," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, February.
    11. Geroliminis, Nikolas, 2015. "Cruising-for-parking in congested cities with an MFD representation," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 156-165.
    12. Jos van Ommeren & Derk Wentink & Piet Rietveld, 2010. "Empirical Evidence on Cruising for Parking," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-028/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Bonsall, Peter & Young, William, 2010. "Is there a case for replacing parking charges by road user charges?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 323-334, September.
    14. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Maconi, Laura & Shirvani, Tara & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part I: Externalities and economic policies in road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 2-45.
    15. Scheiner, Joachim & Faust, Nico & Helmer, Johannes & Straub, Michael & Holz-Rau, Christian, 2020. "What's that garage for? Private parking and on-street parking in a high-density urban residential neighbourhood," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Francis Ostermeijer & Hans RA Koster & Leonardo Nunes & Jos van Ommeren, 2021. "Citywide parking policy and traffic: Evidence from Amsterdam," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Qian Liu & James Wang & Peng Chen & Zuopeng Xiao, 2017. "How does parking interplay with the built environment and affect automobile commuting in high-density cities? A case study in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(14), pages 3299-3317, November.
    18. Premaratne Samaranayake & Upul Gunawardana & Michael Stokoe, 2023. "Kerbside Parking Assessment Using a Simulation Modelling Approach for Infrastructure Planning—A Metropolitan City Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-24, February.
    19. Ostermeijer, Francis & Koster, Hans & Nunes, Leonardo & van Ommeren, Jos, 2022. "Citywide parking policy and traffic: Evidence from Amsterdam," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Groote, Jesper De & Ommeren, Jos Van & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Car ownership and residential parking subsidies: Evidence from Amsterdam," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 25-37.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASIF; carbon emissions; energy consumption; urban transportation; scenario analysis; transportation policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hku:wpaper:201633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carla Chan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieusthk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.