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The Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity: Evidence from Administrative Tax Registers

Author

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  • Angelov, Nikolay

    (The Swedish Tax Agency and Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies (UCFS))

  • Waldenström, Daniel

    (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

Abstract

We use tax-register data on all firms in Sweden to document the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on firm sales, tax payments, and sick pay. The pandemic impact is identified using within-year, between-year, and geographical variation, and we also run placebo tests. Our findings confirm large negative economic effects of the pandemic but shed new light on their magnitudes and sensitivity to Covid-19 morbidity rates. Specifically, we find that VAT and firm sales dropped more than other indicators of corporate activity such as industrial electricity usage or aggregate industrial production. Short-term sick pay increased during the pandemic, but, unlike tax payments, it was insensitive to local infection rates, which indicates behavioral responses to more generous sickness insurance rules during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelov, Nikolay & Waldenström, Daniel, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity: Evidence from Administrative Tax Registers," Working Paper Series 1397, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 24 Apr 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1397
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Sheridan & Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen, 2020. "Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(34), pages 20468-20473, August.
    2. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2020. "Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 619-644, September.
    3. Johansson, Per & Palme, Marten, 2005. "Moral hazard and sickness insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1879-1890, September.
    4. repec:aei:rpaper:1008570714 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Green, Daniel & Loualiche, Erik, 2021. "State and local government employment in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Haiqiang Chen & Wenlan Qian & Qiang Wen, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High-Frequency Transaction Data," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 307-311, May.
    7. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Michael Stepner & The Opportunity Insights Team, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," NBER Working Papers 27431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolay Angelov & Daniel Waldenström, 2021. "Covid-19 and Income Inequality: Evidence from Monthly Population Registers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9178, CESifo.
    2. Dorn, Florian & Lange, Berit & Braml, Martin & Gstrein, David & Nyirenda, John L.Z. & Vanella, Patrizio & Winter, Joachim & Fuest, Clemens & Krause, Gérard, 2023. "The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions – Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas, 2023. "Nowcasting Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data: The Case of Lithuania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Christopher Hoy & Laban Simbeye & Muhammad Abdullah Ali Malik & Aliisa Koivisto & Mashekwa Maboshe, 2022. "How have formal firms recovered from the pandemic?: Insights from survey and tax administrative data in Zambia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-73, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Eliason, Marcus, 2021. "The unequal(?) burden of unemployment in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2021:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    6. Nikolay Angelov & Daniel Waldenström, 2023. "COVID-19 and income inequality: evidence from monthly population registers," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 21(2), pages 351-379, June.
    7. Mantas Lukauskas & Vaida Pilinkienė & Jurgita Bruneckienė & Alina Stundžienė & Andrius Grybauskas & Tomas Ruzgas, 2022. "Economic Activity Forecasting Based on the Sentiment Analysis of News," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-22, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 impact; VAT; Excise taxes; Sick pay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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