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The impact of Covid-19 on economic activity: evidence from administrative tax registers

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolay Angelov

    (The Swedish Tax Agency
    Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies (UCFS))

  • Daniel Waldenström

    (Research Institute for Industrial Economics (IFN)
    CEPR, CESifo, IZA, WIL)

Abstract

We use tax-register data on all firms in Sweden to document the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on firm sales, tax payments, and sick pay. The pandemic impact is identified using within-year, between-year, and geographical variation, and we also run placebo tests. Our findings confirm large negative economic effects of the pandemic but shed new light on their magnitudes and sensitivity to Covid-19 morbidity rates. Specifically, we find that VAT and firm sales dropped more than other indicators of corporate activity such as industrial electricity usage or aggregate industrial production. Short-term sick pay increased during the pandemic, but, unlike tax payments, it was insensitive to local infection rates, which indicates behavioral responses to more generous sickness insurance rules during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Angelov & Daniel Waldenström, 2023. "The impact of Covid-19 on economic activity: evidence from administrative tax registers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(6), pages 1718-1746, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:30:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s10797-023-09780-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-023-09780-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Sheridan & Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen, 2020. "Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(34), pages 20468-20473, August.
    2. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2020. "Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 619-644, September.
    3. Johansson, Per & Palme, Marten, 2005. "Moral hazard and sickness insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1879-1890, September.
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    5. Green, Daniel & Loualiche, Erik, 2021. "State and local government employment in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 impact; VAT; Excise taxes; Sick pay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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