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Analysis and forecasting tax income to the regional budget

Author

Listed:
  • Alisa Ableeva

    (Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State Agrarian University”)

  • Guzel Salimova

    (Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State Agrarian University”)

  • Ramzilia Bakirova

    (Ufa Branch of the Federal State Educational Budgetary Institution of Higher Education “Financial University Under the Government of the Russian Federation” (Ufa Branch of the Financial University))

  • Tatiana Lubova

    (Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State Agrarian University”)

  • Aigul Galimova

    (Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education “Bashkir State University”)

Abstract

The article carried out a structural and dynamic analysis of tax revenues, using the example of revenues to the budget of the Bashkortostan Republic, in order to develop a sequence for fulfilling the forecast for future periods of tax revenues to the regional budget. An assessment was made of changes in the structure of tax revenues to the regional budget using generalizing indicators of a comprehensive assessment of structural changes for 2013–2020. A study was made of the dynamics of tax revenues to the budget over a long period. Inflation was also taken into account as an independent factor influencing the modeling of the volume of budget revenues according to the development trend of the time series. The development of a draft regional budget under conditions of uncertainty requires the active use of various forecasting methods. Therefore, forecasting methods were used based on identifying development trends that most reliably describe the trend of tax revenues to the regional budget. The assessment of the accuracy of the identified trends is determined using the coefficients of determination and the standard deviation. Forecast errors and confidence intervals for forecasting are determined. The results obtained in the study can be applied in the practice of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting to increase the accuracy of forecasts of regional budget revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Alisa Ableeva & Guzel Salimova & Ramzilia Bakirova & Tatiana Lubova & Aigul Galimova, 2024. "Analysis and forecasting tax income to the regional budget," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(12), pages 30929-30950, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1007_s10668-023-04098-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04098-9
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