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The Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity: Evidence from Administrative Tax Registers

Author

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  • Waldenstrom, Daniel
  • Angelov, Nikolay

Abstract

We use population-wide tax register data to document the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm sales, tax revenues, and sick pay in Sweden. The pandemic impact is identified using within-year, between-year, and geographical variation, and our data allows us to run placebo tests. Our findings confirm the large negative effects of the pandemic, but shed new light on their magnitudes and sensitivity to COVID-19 morbidity rates. Specifically, we find that the impact on VAT and firm sales was larger than on commonly used industrial and service production indexes, larger than the effect on electricity for industrial use, but less than the effect on excise taxes on air travel. The pandemic’s impact on short-term sick pay is large, but unlike tax payments, it does not vary with local infection rates, indicating behavioral responses to more generous rules for sickness insurance during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Waldenstrom, Daniel & Angelov, Nikolay, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity: Evidence from Administrative Tax Registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 16332, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16332
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    2. Waldenström, Daniel & Angelov, Nikolay, 2021. "COVID-19 and Income Inequality: Evidence from Monthly Population Registers," Working Paper Series 1396, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    3. Timiryanova, Venera, 2022. "Высокочастотные Данные, Характеризующие Розничную Торговлю: Интересы Государства, Предприятий И Научных Организаций [High-frequency retail data: the interests of the state, enterprises and scientif," MPRA Paper 115681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eliason, Marcus, 2021. "The unequal(?) burden of unemployment in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2021:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    5. Bachas, Pierre & Brockmeyer, Anne & Garriga, Pablo & Semelet, Camille, 2025. "The impact of COVID-19 on formal firms: Lessons from administrative tax data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Dorn, Florian & Lange, Berit & Braml, Martin & Gstrein, David & Nyirenda, John L.Z. & Vanella, Patrizio & Winter, Joachim & Fuest, Clemens & Krause, Gérard, 2023. "The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions – Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Christopher Hoy & Laban Simbeye & Aliisa Koivisto & Mashekwa Maboshe & Muhammad Abdullah Ali Malik, 2024. "How Have Formal Firms Recovered From the Pandemic? Insights From Survey and Tax Administrative Data in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 33(5), pages 538-561.
    8. Nikolay Angelov & Daniel Waldenström, 2023. "COVID-19 and income inequality: evidence from monthly population registers," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 21(2), pages 351-379, June.
    9. Mantas Lukauskas & Vaida Pilinkienė & Jurgita Bruneckienė & Alina Stundžienė & Andrius Grybauskas & Tomas Ruzgas, 2022. "Economic Activity Forecasting Based on the Sentiment Analysis of News," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Coşkun Akdeniz & Ali İlhan, 2024. "Time-varying effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets and economic activity: evidence from the US and Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 529-558, May.
    11. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas, 2023. "Nowcasting Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data: The Case of Lithuania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Patino-Artaza, Helena & King, Lewis C. & Savin, Ivan, 2024. "Did COVID-19 really change our lifestyles? Evidence from transport energy consumption in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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