Yellow Cards and Suspension by Choice: Determinants and Asymmetries

This study demonstrates that psycho-economic determinants are significant in the awarding of yellow cards in a soccer match. This is the first multivariate analysis of the number of yellow cards given to a team in a match, and the study concludes that the characteristics of the referee, a home match effect, a derby match effect, and whether a team wins are crucial. The absolute point difference in relation to the current opponent can play a role as well. This is also the first work to analyze the probability of a team’s player collecting his fifth yellow card. We find that the probability is not determined by the characteristics of the referee but by whether a team wins, by whether a team plays at its home pitch and by the quality of the teams participating in the subsequent matches. Soccer players tend to collect their fifth yellow card and their suspension by choice when playing against a better opponent in the next match. For teams in the lower range, the opponent after next plays a role as well.