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Impact of Non-Smoking Ordinances on Hospitality Revenues: The Case of Germany

  • Gabriel Ahlfeldt

    ()

    (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg)

  • Wolfgang Maennig

    ()

    (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg)

Non-smoking ordinances are among the most popular albeit controversial public health-care legislations worldwide. This article provides an empirical assessment of the impact of non-smoking ordinances on bar and restaurant revenues in German Federal States. By application of panel spline regression and difference-in-difference strategies, we find negative impact limited to bars in the very short run. If any, there is a positive impact on total expenditures in the long run, indicating that either consumption pattern has not changed at all or that any reduction in spending by smokers is compensated for by a corresponding increase by non-smokers. These findings support the German – and similar – non-smoking legislations in the sense that positive externalities resulting from reduced health care cost are likely to outweigh the risk to businesses in the hospitality sector, at least in the long run.

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File URL: http://www.hced.uni-hamburg.de/WorkingPapers/HCED-026.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Paper provided by Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg in its series Working Papers with number 026.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Hamburg Contemporary Economic Discussions, Issue 26, 2009
Handle: RePEc:hce:wpaper:026
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  1. Stephen Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2005. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," CEP Discussion Papers dp0688, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
  3. Michael R. Pakko, 2006. "On the economic analysis of smoking bans," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 115-130.
  4. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  5. J. Dunham & ML. Marlow, 2000. "Smoking laws and their differential effects on restaurants, bars, and taverns," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 326-333, 07.
  6. Alamar, B C & Glantz, Stanton A. Ph.D., 2004. "Smoke-free ordinances increase restaurant profit and value," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt91w950j4, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
  7. repec:rwi:repape:0172 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Adams Scott & Cotti Chad D., 2007. "The Effect of Smoking Bans on Bars and Restaurants: An Analysis of Changes in Employment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
  9. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Wolfgang Maennig, 2010. "Impact of Non-smoking Ordinances on Hospitality Revenues: The Case of Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(5), pages 506-521, October.
  10. Anger, Silke & Kvasnicka, Michael & Siedler, Thomas, 2010. "One Last Puff? Public Smoking Bans and Smoking Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 4873, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Michael R. Pakko, 2008. "The economic impact of a smoking ban in Columbia, Missouri: an analysis of sales tax data for the first year," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 30-40.
  12. Robert K. Fleck & F. Andrew Hanssen, 2008. "Why Understanding Smoking Bans Is Important For Estimating Their Effects: California'S Restaurant Smoking Bans And Restaurant Sales," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(1), pages 60-76, 01.
  13. Benjamin Parker & Eric Chiang, 2007. "Addressing the revenue impact of smoking ordinances," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 871-875.
  14. David W. Cowling & Philip Bond, 2005. "Smoke-free laws and bar revenues in California - the last call," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(12), pages 1273-1281.
  15. Benjamin C. Alamar & Stanton A. Glantz, 2004. "Smoke-free Ordinances Increase Restaurant Profit and Value," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(4), pages 520-525, October.
  16. Michael Kvasnicka & Harald Tauchmann, 2012. "Much ado about nothing? Smoking bans and Germany's hospitality industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4539-4551, December.
  17. Halvorsen, Robert & Palmquist, Raymond, 1980. "The Interpretation of Dummy Variables in Semilogarithmic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 474-75, June.
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