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Mood and the Malleability of Moral Reasoning: The Impact of Irrelevant Factors on Judicial Decisions

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  • Daniel L. Chen

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Markus Loecher

    (Berlin School of Economics and Law)

Abstract

We detect intra-judge variation spanning three decades in 1.5 million judicial decisions driven by factors unrelated to case merits. U.S. immigration judges deny an additional 1.4% of asylum petitions–and U.S. district judges assign 0.6% longer prison sentences and 5% shorter probation sentences—on the day after their city's NFL team lost. Bad weather has a similar effect as a team loss. Unrepresented parties in asylum bear the brunt of NFL effects, and the effect on district judges appears larger for those likely to be following the NFL team. We employ double residualization for a "causal" importance score.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Chen & Markus Loecher, 2022. "Mood and the Malleability of Moral Reasoning: The Impact of Irrelevant Factors on Judicial Decisions," Working Papers hal-03864854, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03864854
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2740485
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03864854
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    References listed on IDEAS

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