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Mood and the malleability of moral reasoning: the impact of irrelevant factors on judicial decisions

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  • Chen, Daniel L.
  • Loecher, Markus

Abstract

Emotions are said to underlie moral decision-making. We detect intra-judge variation spanning three decades in 1.5 million judicial decisions driven by factors unrelated to case merits. U.S. immigration judges grant an additional 1.4 % points of asylum petitions–and U.S. district judges assign 0.6 % points fewer prison sentences and 5 % longer probation sentences—on the day after their city's NFL team won, relative to days after the team lost. Bad weather has the opposite effect of a team win. Unrepresented parties in asylum bear the brunt of NFL effects. The effect on district judges only appears for judges born in the same state as the current state of residence, providing clean evidence of extraneous influences on judge decision-making as opposed to lawyer or applicant behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Daniel L. & Loecher, Markus, 2025. "Mood and the malleability of moral reasoning: the impact of irrelevant factors on judicial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:116:y:2025:i:c:s221480432500031x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2025.102364
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    1. Clay Collins, 2026. "Emotional Cues, Election Outcomes, and Intimate Partner Violence," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 107-135, January.

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