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Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Changes: The Impact of Trade Openness

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  • Davide Romelli

    (Essec Business School, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cristina Terra

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Essec Business School)

  • Enrico Vasconcelos

    (Banco Central do Brasil)

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of trade openness on the relationship between current account and real exchange rates, during episodes of sudden stops and of abrupt exchange rate depreciations. Using data for developed and emerging economies for the period 1970-2011, we nd that more open economies are associated with lower exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. We also provide evidence that, during abrupt exchange rate depreciation episodes, economies that are more open to trade experience a larger change in current account and trade balance. In other words, our results indicate that improvements in current account and trade balance are accompanied by a smaller exchange rate depreciation in more open economies. These fi ndings are robust to di fferent measures of openness to trade and methodologies of identifying sudden stops and abrupt exchange rate depreciations.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Romelli & Cristina Terra & Enrico Vasconcelos, 2015. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Changes: The Impact of Trade Openness," Working Papers hal-01247628, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01247628
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2439832
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-essec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01247628
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    2. Zhai, Weiyang & Yoshida, Yushi, 2020. "Revisiting the Glick-Rogoff Current Account Model: An Application to the Current Accounts of BRICS Countries," MPRA Paper 99446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carlos A. Silva & Xavier Ordeñana & Paul Vera-Gilces & Alfredo Jiménez, 2021. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Institutions, Financial Development and FDI in the Context of Financial Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(1), pages 1-1, January.
    4. Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "An Empirical Test of Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2019. "Flexible exchange rates and current account adjustment," Discussion Papers 2019/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2020. "Panel Cointegration, Quantile Regressions, Asymmetric Adjustments and Crises: The Case of EU Current Accounts," Working Papers 2020/26, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade openness; sudden stops; exchange rate depreciation;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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