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Current Account and Real Exchange Rate changes: the impact of trade openness

Author

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  • Davide Romelli
  • Cristina Terra
  • Enrico Vasconcelos

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of trade openness on the relationship between current account and real exchange rates, during episodes of sudden stops and of abrupt exchange rate depreciations. Using data for developed and emerging economies for the period 1970--2011, we find that more open economies are associated with lower exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. We also provide evidence that, during abrupt exchange rate depreciation episodes, economies that are more open to trade experience a larger change in current account and trade balance. In other words, our results indicate that improvements in current account and trade balance are accompanied by a smaller exchange rate depreciation in more open economies. These findings are robust to different measures of openness to trade and methodologies of identifying sudden stops and abrupt exchange rate depreciations.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Romelli & Cristina Terra & Enrico Vasconcelos, 2016. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate changes: the impact of trade openness," Working Papers Series 437, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:437
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps437.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Munir Ahmad & Gul Jabeen & Syed Ahsan Ali Shah & Abdul Rehman & Fayyaz Ahmad & Cem Işik, 2022. "Assessing long- and short-run dynamic interplay among balance of trade, aggregate economic output, real exchange rate, and CO2 emissions in Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 7283-7323, May.
    2. Bosede Victoria Kudaisi, 2022. "Trade, Financial Liberalisation And Current Account Balance In Nigeria," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(special), pages 36-50, June.
    3. Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "An Empirical Test of Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Biswajit Maitra & Dhritiman Ganguli, 2024. "Fiscal policy and real exchange rate variations in India," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 619-640, September.
    5. Katarzyna Twarowska-Mol & Małgorzata Twarowska-Ratajczak, 2021. "Analysis of Factors Determining Global Payment Imbalances in 2000-2019," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4 - Part ), pages 455-478.
    6. Sargis Karavardanyan, 2025. "Corruption, economic globalization, and protests: theory and evidence for short- and long-term mechanisms," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(6), pages 1-33, June.
    7. Tirimisiyu F. Oloko & Muritala O. Ogunsiji, 2024. "Exchange Rate, External Reserves And Current Account Balance Nexus In Oil-Dependent Countries: A Toda-Yamomotobased Panel Vector Autoregressive (Pvar) Approach," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17.
    8. Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2021. "Panel cointegration, quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustments and crises: The case of EU current accounts," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    9. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2019. "Flexible exchange rates and current account adjustment," Discussion Papers 2019/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    10. Tii N. Nchofoung & Elvis Dze Achuo & Linda Julie Tiague Zanfack, 2023. "Exchange rate misalignment and revenue mobilisation: a global comparative evidence of trade openness thresholds," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 281-310, December.
    11. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
    12. Helena Glebocki Keefe & Sujata Saha, 2022. "Threshold effects of openness on real and nominal effective exchange rates in emerging and developing economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1386-1408, May.
    13. Ernesto R. Gantman & Marcelo P. Dabós, 2018. "Does trade openness influence the real effective exchange rate? New evidence from panel time-series," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 91-113, March.
    14. Soyoung Kim & Kyunghee Min, 2023. "Long‐term determinants of valuation effects," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 985-1031, August.
    15. Carlos A. Silva & Xavier Ordeñana & Paul Vera-Gilces & Alfredo Jiménez, 2021. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Institutions, Financial Development and FDI in the Context of Financial Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    16. Yushi Yoshida & Weiyang Zhai, 2021. "Revisiting the Glick–Rogoff Current Account Model: An Application to the Current Accounts of BRICS Countries," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 265-291, Springer.
    17. Yahui Yang & Zhe Peng, 2024. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from China," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 121-158, February.
    18. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:4b:p:455-478 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hyunjoon Lim, 2025. "Responses of Foreign Exchange Market to External Shocks: What Makes Differences?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 981-999, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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