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L'émergence de l'Asie en développement menace-t-elle l'emploi en France ?

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Is trade with developing countries in Asia a threat to employment in France ? Catherine Mathieu, Henri Sterdyniak Growth rates have been particularly high in south-east Asian developing countries for the last two decades (averaging 7 %), as compared to those of the rest of the world. Asian dynamic economies are sometimes accused to be a cause for the low growth rates in Europe, and some other times considered as an opportunity for industrial countries to export to these areas. Even though trade between Europe and developing countries in Asia has developed over this period, it stills represents a very small part of European imports : imports from this area only account for 1,4 % of the EC GDP. However these imports mainly consist in low price commodities, which means that they represent a more important part of the European production than they seem to. But, besides, low import prices also mean lower inflation rates, thus allowing increases of the purchasing power in the EC. Developing countries in Asia have external trade surpluses both with the EC and the USA, but no global surplus since they are in deficit with Japan. There are only few european direct investment inflows to developing countries in Asia, European firms generally opting for contracts with local firms. The undervaluation of these industrializing countries currencies, as compared to that of the purchasing power parities, reflects both economic underdeveloped economies and export-oriented policies. This strategy has revealed sucessful. It allows Asian economic partners to import low price products and to export investment goods. Yet, the emergence of this area has entailed massive job destructions in several sectors of the French industry. A simulation made with the OFCE-Mosaique macroeconomic model indicates that, depending on the assumptions made, from 190 000 up to 230 000 jobs have been lost in France, because of the increase of Asian industrial exports all over the world (including French imports). Imports from low wages areas induce unskilled workers dismissals, an increase in social inequalities, and in the number of the unemployed in developed countries if no redistribution takes place. However, taxing imports from these countries would be selfishness and has no justification. Europe should find a way to help developing countries to grow, meanwhile having sustantial internal growth rates again. This requires more active economic policies (lower interest rates and expansionary policies), a fiscal reform to compensate for the gaps between social and private labour costs, and redistribution in favour of the workers hit by imports from low wages countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 1994. "L'émergence de l'Asie en développement menace-t-elle l'emploi en France ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03471463, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03471463
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1994.1354
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03471463v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wood, Adrian, 1991. "How Much Does Trade with the South Affect Workers in the North?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 6(1), pages 19-36, January.
    2. CEPII & OFCE & Marie-Hélène Blonde & Gérard Cornilleau & Pascal Helwaser & Jacques Le Cacheux & Jean Le Dem & Henri Sterdyniak & Bill Robinson & Stephen Smith, 1990. "Vers une fiscalité européenne ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 31(1), pages 121-189.
    3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
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    1. Hervé Bonnaz & Nathalie Courtot & Dominique Nivat, 1994. "Le contenu en emplois des échanges industriels de la France avec les pays en développement," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 279(1), pages 13-33.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5061 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/685 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Olivier Cortes & Sébastien Jean, 1994. "Comment mesurer l'impact du commerce international sur l'emploi ? Une note méthodologique," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 279(1), pages 3-11.
    5. Pierre Joly, 1997. "Présentation générale," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 301(1), pages 3-21.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1823 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jean-Pierre Cling, 1994. "Les échanges avec les pays en développement et leurs conséquences sur l'emploi," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 279(1), pages 47-68.
    8. Derbel, Hatem & Abdelkafi, Rami & Chkir, Ali, 2007. "Impact du commerce extérieur sur la productivité au sein des secteurs en Tunisie : cas de l’industrie manufacturière [Impact of foreign trade on productivity within sectors in Tunisia: the case of ," MPRA Paper 8533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2007.
    9. Dhaoui, Elwardi, 2013. "Impact social des délocalisations: mythe ou réalité? [Social impact of offshoring: myth or reality?]," MPRA Paper 63684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alain Gallais & Bernard Gautier, 1994. "Structure des qualifications et échanges extérieurs français," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 279(1), pages 35-46.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/685 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5061 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Guillaume Daudin & Sandrine Levasseur, 2005. "Appendix 8 : Measuring the effect of international relocations on French economy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01073900, HAL.
    14. Olivier Cortès & Sébastien Jean, 1996. "Pays émergents, emploi déficient ?," Working Papers 1996-05, CEPII research center.
    15. Olivier Cortès & Sébastien Jean & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1996. "Trade with Emerging Countries and the Labour Market: The French Case," Working Papers 1996-04, CEPII research center.
    16. Didier Blanchet, 1995. "Inégalité, spécialisation, progrès technique et développement de services non qualifiés locaux," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 120(4), pages 1-13.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1823 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Emploi; Menace;

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