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Does Public Debt Crowd Out Corporate Investment? International Evidence

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Abstract

Using data for advanced and emerging economies, we show that there is a negative correlation between public debt and corporate investment. Industry-level regressions show that high levels of government debt are particularly damaging for industries that need more external ?financial resources. Firm-level regressions show that government debt increases the sensitivity of corporate investment to cash ?flow. These results indicate that the relationship between public debt and investment is likely to be causal and that public debt crowds out corporate investment by tightening credit constraints.

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  • Yi Huang & Ugo Panizza & Richard Varghese, 2018. "Does Public Debt Crowd Out Corporate Investment? International Evidence," IHEID Working Papers 08-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp08-2018
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    2. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    3. A. Fatas & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Ugo Panizza & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," IMF Working Papers 2019/101, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on Factors Conditioning the Turning Point of the Public Debt–Growth Relationship," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," CEPR Discussion Papers 14439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Bussolo, Maurizio & de Nicola, Francesca & Panizza, Ugo & Varghese, Richard, 2022. "Politically connected firms and privileged access to credit: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Xuan Leng & Pengcheng Li & Yuming Zheng, 2023. "Does the expansion of local government debt affect the export quality?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 2495-2515, June.
    8. Eminidou, Snezana & Geiger, Martin & Zachariadis, Marios, 2023. "Public debt and state-dependent effects of fiscal policy in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    10. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ytallo Brito, 2021. "The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(50), pages 5864-5876, October.
    11. Willem Vanlaer & Mattia Picarelli & Wim Marneffe, 2021. "Debt and Private Investment: Does the EU Suffer from a Debt Overhang?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 789-820, September.
    12. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2020. "Causality Between Public Debt, Public Debt Service and Economic Growth in an Emerging Economy," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 65(1), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Sovereign debt and economic growth in Zimbabwe: Amultivariate causal linkage," Working Papers 25680, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    14. Junbing Xu & Yuanyuan Li & Dawei Feng & Zhouyi Wu & Yang He, 2021. "Crowding in or crowding out? How local government debt influences corporate innovation for China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    16. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth: Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 25745, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    17. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2021. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in Zimbabwe: A Dynamic Multivariate Causality Test," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 173-196.
    18. Panizza, Ugo & Bussolo, Maurizio & de Nicola, Francesca & Varghese, Richard, 2019. "Political Connections and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 14126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.
    20. Charles Bahr & Lee Hui Shan & Alfred Lam, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis of Evidence from Canada," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9.
    21. Hubert Gabrisch & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Esther Linton-Kubelka & Leon Podkaminer & Roman Stöllinger, 2022. "Monthly Report No. 12/2022," wiiw Monthly Reports 2022-12, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    22. Shenzhe Jiang & Jianjun Miao & Yuzhe Zhang, 2022. "China'S Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, And Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1189-1237, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Public Debt; Crowding Out; Credit Constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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