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Does Public Debt Crowd Out Corporate Investment? International Evidence

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  • Huang, Yi
  • Panizza, Ugo
  • Varghese, Richard

Abstract

Using data for advanced and emerging economies, we show that there is a negative correlation between public debt and corporate investment. Industry-level regressions show that high levels of government debt are particularly damaging for industries that need more external financial resources. Firm-level regressions show that government debt increases the sensitivity of corporate investment to cash flow. These results indicate that the relationship between public debt and investment is likely to be causal and that public debt crowds out corporate investment by tightening credit constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Yi & Panizza, Ugo & Varghese, Richard, 2018. "Does Public Debt Crowd Out Corporate Investment? International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "Public Debt and Private Firm Funding: Evidence from Chinese Cities," IHEID Working Papers 10-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Aug 2016.
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    4. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    6. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    8. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    9. Kourtellos, Andros & Stengos, Thanasis & Tan, Chih Ming, 2013. "The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 35-43.
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    12. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Fatás & Atish R. Ghosh & Ugo Panizza & Andrea F Presbitero, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," IMF Working Papers 19/101, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Sovereign debt and economic growth in Zimbabwe: Amultivariate causal linkage," Working Papers 25680, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    3. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth: Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 25745, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    4. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Does public debt impact economic growth in Zambia? An ARDL -bounds testing approach," Working Papers 25666, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    5. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "The impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Working Papers 25663, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    6. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit constraints; Crowding out; investment; public debt;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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