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Non-Causality in VAR-ECM Models with Purely Exogeneous Long-Run Paths

We propose in this paper a framework based on a canonical representation of the long run matrix, which can constitute a basis for Granger non-causality testing in a VAR-ECM model using asymptotically Chi-square distributed Wald test statistics, and that unlike Giannini and Mosconi (1992), permits to clearly distinguish the nullity of some parameter blocks we can always achieve without any loss of generality, of the nullity of the parameter blocks resulting from the non-causality property. This canonical representation requires to determine the specific rank of a particular sub-matrix, which can be done using sequential test procedure, whose properties are analysed in small and large samples with Monte Carlo experiments.

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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications with number 1999.44.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:pariem:1999.44
Contact details of provider: Postal: France; Universite de Paris I - Pantheon- Sorbonne, 12 Place de Pantheon-75005 Paris, France
Phone: + 33 44 07 81 00
Fax: + 33 1 44 07 83 01
Web page: http://cermsem.univ-paris1.fr/
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  1. Hunter, John, 1992. "Tests of cointegrating exogeneity for PPP and uncovered interest rate parity in the United Kingdom," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 453-463, August.
  2. Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  6. Psaradakis, Zacharias, 1994. "A comparison of tests of linear hypotheses in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 137-144, June.
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