Non-causality in VAR-ECM models with purely exogenous long-run paths
We propose in this paper a framework based on a canonical representation of the long run matrix, which can constitute a basis for Granger non-causality testing in a VAR-ECM model using asymptotically Chi-square distributed Wald test statistics, and that unlike Giannini and Mosconi (1992), permits to clearly distinguish the nullity of some parameter blocks we can always achieve without any loss of generality, of the nullity of the parameter blocks resulting from the non-causality property. This canonical representation requires to determine the specific rank of a particular sub-matrix, which can be done using sequential test procedure, whose properties are analysed in small and large samples with Monte Carlo experiments.
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- Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
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- Psaradakis, Zacharias, 1994. "A comparison of tests of linear hypotheses in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 137-144, June.
- Hunter, John, 1992. "Tests of cointegrating exogeneity for PPP and uncovered interest rate parity in the United Kingdom," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 453-463, August.
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