IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fme/wpaper/30.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A regression discontinuity evaluation of reducing early retirement eligibility in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Oliwia Komada

    (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE))

  • Pawel Strzelecki

    (Narodowy Bank Polski
    Instytut Statystyki i Demografii)

  • Joanna Tyrowicz

    (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
    University of Warsaw
    Institut für Arbeitsrecht und Arbeitsbeziehungen in der Europäischen Union (IAAEU)
    Institute of Labor Economics (IZA))

Abstract

The reform introduced in Poland in 2009 substantially and abruptly reduced the number of workers eligible for early retirement. This paper evaluates the causal effects of this reform on labor force participation and exit to retirement. We use rich rotating panel from the Polish Labor Force Survey and exploit the discontinuity imposed by this reform. We find a statistically significant, but economically small discontinuity at the timing of the reform. The placebo test shows no similar effects in earlier or later quarters, but in a vast majority of specifications the discontinuity is not larger for the treated individuals, i.e. those whose occupation lost eligibility. We interpret these results as follows: the changes in the eligibility criteria were not instrumental in fostering the participation rates among the affected cohort, i.e. the immediate contribution to increased labor force participation of these cohorts is not economically large.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliwia Komada & Pawel Strzelecki & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2018. "A regression discontinuity evaluation of reducing early retirement eligibility in Poland," GRAPE Working Papers 30, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fme:wpaper:30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://grape.org.pl/WP/30_KomadaStrzeleckiTyrowicz_website.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco de Pinto & Laszlo Goerke, 2020. "Welfare‐enhancing Trade Unions in an Oligopoly with Excessive Entry," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(1), pages 60-90, January.
    2. Staubli, Stefan & Zweimüller, Josef, 2011. "Does Raising the Retirement Age Increase Employment of Older Workers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2015. "Household Consumption at Retirement : A Regression Discontinuity Study on French Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 117-118, pages 253-276.
    4. Elena Stancanelli & Arthur Van Soest, 2012. "Retirement and Home Production: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 600-605, May.
    5. Chen, Susan & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2008. "The work disincentive effects of the disability insurance program in the 1990s," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 757-784, February.
    6. Jean-Olivier Hairault & François Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2010. "Distance to Retirement and The Job Search of Older Workers: The Case For Delaying Retirement Age," Post-Print hal-00517107, HAL.
    7. Peter Eibich, 2014. "Understanding the Effect of Retirement on Health Using Regression Discontinuity Design," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 669, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    8. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    9. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
    10. Lammers, Marloes & Bloemen, Hans & Hochguertel, Stefan, 2013. "Job search requirements for older unemployed: Transitions to employment, early retirement and disability benefits," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 31-57.
    11. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    12. Jean-Olivier Hairault & Francois Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2010. "Distance to Retirement and Older Workers' Employment: The Case for Delaying the Retirement Age," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(5), pages 1034-1076, September.
    13. Kuhn, Andreas & Wuellrich, Jean-Philippe & Zweimüller, Josef, 2010. "Fatal Attraction? Access to Early Retirement and Mortality," CEPR Discussion Papers 8024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Laszlo Goerke, 2017. "Tax evasion in a Cournot oligopoly with endogenous entry," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(5), pages 754-779, September.
    15. Richard Blundell & Costas Meghir & Sarah Smith, 2002. "Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 153-170, March.
    16. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2009. "Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1224-1233, December.
    17. Joseph F. Quinn, 1977. "Microeconomic Determinants of Early Retirement: A Cross-Sectional View of White Married Men," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 12(3), pages 329-346.
    18. Stancanelli, Elena G. F. & van Soest, Arthur, 2012. "Joint Leisure Before and After Retirement: A Double Regression Discontinuity Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 6698, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Goerke, Laszlo & Pannenberg, Markus, 2015. "Direct evidence for income comparisons and subjective well-being across reference groups," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 95-101.
    20. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2015. "Household Consumption at Retirement : A Regression Discontinuity Study on French Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 117-118, pages 253-276.
    21. Nicole Bosch & Bas ter Weel, 2013. "Labour-Market Outcomes of Older Workers in the Netherlands: Measuring Job Prospects Using the Occupational Age Structure," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 199-218, June.
    22. John Bound & Timothy Waidmann, 2007. "Estimating the Health Effects of Retirements," Working Papers wp168, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    23. Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, 2008. "Regression–Discontinuity Analysis: A Survey of Recent Developments in Economics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(2), pages 219-245, June.
    24. Armando Barrientos & Juan Miguel Villa, 2015. "Antipoverty Transfers and Labour Market Outcomes: Regression Discontinuity Design Findings," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(9), pages 1224-1240, September.
    25. Eric V. Edmonds & Kristin Mammen & Douglas L. Miller, 2005. "Rearranging the Family?: Income Support and Elderly Living Arrangements in a Low-Income Country," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    26. repec:adr:anecst:y:2015:i:117-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Laszlo Goerke, 2017. "Sick pay reforms and health status in a unionised labour market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(2), pages 115-142, May.
    28. Puhani, Patrick A. & Tabbert, Falko, 2016. "The effects of pension changes on age of first benefit receipt: Regression discontinuity evidence from repatriated ethnic Germans," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 12-23.
    29. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne, 1999. "Early Retirement Provisions and the Labor Force Behavior of Older Men: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 724-756, October.
    30. Nicole Bosch & Bas ter Weel, 2013. "Labour-market outcomes of older workers in the Netherlands: Measuring job prospects using the occupational age structure," CPB Discussion Paper 234, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    31. Alexander M. Danzer, 2013. "Benefit Generosity and the Income Effect on Labour Supply: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 1059-1084, September.
    32. Chadi, Adrian, 2021. "Identification of attrition bias using different types of panel refreshments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    33. David M. Blau & Ryan M. Goodstein, 2010. "Can Social Security Explain Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Men in the United States?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    34. Balleer, Almut & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Turunen, Jarkko, 2009. "Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis," Working Paper Series 1049, European Central Bank.
    35. Romain Duval, 2003. "The Retirement Effects of Old-Age Pension and Early Retirement Schemes in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 370, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paweł A. Strzelecki, 2019. "Health, disability and labor force participation trends in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 31-53.
    2. Sonia Buchholtz & Jan Gąska & Marek Góra, 2021. "Myopic Savings Behaviour of Future Polish Pensioners," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Regina T. Riphahn & Rebecca Schrader, 2021. "Reforms of an Early Retirement Pathway in Germany and Their Labor Market Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 9461, CESifo.
    4. Regina T. Riphahn & Rebecca Schrader, 2020. "Labor market effects of early retirement reforms," Working Papers 199, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    5. Sipei Xu & Jia Zhang, 2022. "Do Social Pensions Affect the Physical and Mental Health of Rural Children in China? An Intergenerational Care Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-25, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paweł Strzelecki & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2015. "Crowding (out) the retirees? RDD application to raising effective retirement age in Poland," Working Papers 2015-10, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Paweł Strzelecki & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2015. "Crowding (out) the retirees? RDD application to raising effective retirement age in Poland," Working Papers 2015-10, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    3. Stancanelli, Elena G. F., 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours Outcomes: Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity with Differences-in-Differences," IZA Discussion Papers 6791, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Jim Been & Susann Rohwedder & Michael Hurd, 2021. "Households’ joint consumption spending and home production responses to retirement in the US," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 959-985, December.
    5. Elena Stancanelli, 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours of Work Outcomes: Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12074, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2015. "Household Consumption at Retirement : A Regression Discontinuity Study on French Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 117-118, pages 253-276.
    7. Elena Stancanelli & Arthur Van Soest, 2012. "Joint Leisure Before and After Retirement: a double Regression Discontinuity Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12085, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Barbara Engels & Johannes Geyer & Peter Haan, 2016. "Pension Incentives and Early Retirement," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1617, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2013. "Household Consumption at Retirement: A Regression Discontinuity Study on French," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13072, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    10. Alberto Palermo & Clemens Buchen & Bruno Deffains, 2018. "Stigmatization, Liability and Public Enforcement of Law," IAAEU Discussion Papers 201811, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    11. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    12. Saporta-Eksten, Itay & Shurtz, Ity & Weisburd, Sarit, 2020. "Social Security, Labor Supply and Health of Older Workers: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Large Reform," CEPR Discussion Papers 14769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Elena Stancanelli, 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours of Work Outcomes : Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity," Post-Print halshs-00755648, HAL.
    14. Laszlo Goerke, 2019. "Corporate social responsibility and tax avoidance," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 21(2), pages 310-331, April.
    15. Laszlo Goerke, 2018. "Sickness Absence and Relative Income," IAAEU Discussion Papers 201812, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    16. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    17. Stephan Huber & Jochen Model & Silvio Städter, 2019. "Ostracism in alliances of teams and individuals: Voting, exclusion, contribution, and earnings," IAAEU Discussion Papers 201901, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    18. Hullegie, P.G.J., 2012. "Essays on health and labor economics," Other publications TiSEM dcc68fc9-7af1-4ba9-8f90-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Florian Hett & Markus Kroell & Mario Mechtel, 2019. "The Structure and Behavioral Effects of Revealed Social Identity Preferences," IAAEU Discussion Papers 201903, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    20. Yingying Dong, 2012. "Regression Discontinuity Applications with Rounding Errors in the Running Variable," Working Papers 111206, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    privatization; rushed privatization; efficiency; firm size; employment; performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P45 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages
    • P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fme:wpaper:30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/grauwpl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Hagemejer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/grauwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.