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Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade

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  • Reuven Glick

Abstract

The effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and European Union (EU) on trade are separately estimated using an empirical gravity model. Employing a panel approach with both time-varying country and dyadic fixed effects on a large span of data (across both countries and time), it is found that EMU and EU each significantly boosted exports. EMU expanded European trade by 40% for the original members, while the EU increased trade by almost 70%. Newer members have experienced even higher trade as a result of joining the EU, but more time is necessary to see the effects of their joining EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Glick, 2016. "Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade," Working Paper Series 2016-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2016-27
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2016-27
    Note: Draft: October 6, 2016. Data available under "Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Reassessment" at: http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/RecRes.htm#Software
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    2. Nauro F. Campos & Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronisation in a Currency Union: Taking Stock of the Evidence," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_017, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    3. Giovanni Cerulli & Silvia Nenci & Luca Salvatici & Antonio Zinilli, 2022. "Currency Unions and Global Value Chains: The Impact of the Euro on the Italian Value Added Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 373-407, July.
    4. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2022. "ECOWAS single currency: Prospective effects on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Natalie Chen & Dennis Novy, 2022. "Gravity and Heterogeneous Trade Cost Elasticities," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1349-1377.
    6. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Tania El Kallab & Cristina Terra, 2018. "French Colonial Trade Patterns and European Settlements," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 291-331, September.
    8. Castañeda, Juan E. & Cendejas, José Luis, 2022. "Macroeconomic asymmetry in the Eurozone before and after the Global Financial Crisis: An appraisal of the role of the ECB," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 184-202.
    9. Campos, Nauro F. & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2019. "Business cycle synchronisation and currency unions: A review of the econometric evidence using meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 274-283.
    10. Mika, Alina & Zymek, Robert, 2018. "Friends without benefits? New EMU members and the “Euro Effect” on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-92.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Eduardo Rodrigues Sanguinet & Augusto Mussi Alvim & Miguel Atienza, 2022. "Trade agreements and participation in global value chains: Empirical evidence from Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 702-738, March.
    13. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2018. "The happy few: cross-country evidence of the euro effect on trade," Working Papers 1803, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    14. Campos, Nauro F. & Jarko, Fidrmuc & Iikka, Korhonen, 2017. "Business cycle synchronisation in a currency union: Taking stock of the evidence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2017, Bank of Finland.
    15. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez & Salvador Gil‐Pareja & Rafael Llorca‐Vivero & José Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2020. "EMU and trade: A PPML re‐assessment with intra‐national trade flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2574-2599, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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