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Inequality and Imbalances : a Monetary Union Agent-Based Model

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Cardaci

    (Universita Cattolica des Sacro Cuore, Via Lodovico Necchi, Milan, Italie)

  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE, Sciences Po Paris, France, LUISS-SEP, Rome, Italie)

Abstract

Our paper investigates the impact of rising inequality in a two-country macroeconomic model with an agent-based household sector characterised by peer effects in consumption. In particular, the model highlights the role of inequality in determining diverging balance of payments dynamics within a currency union. Inequality may drive the two countries into different growth patterns: where peer effects in consumption interact with higher credit availability, rising income inequality leads to the emergence of a debt-led growth. Where social norms determine weaker emulation and credit availability is lower, an export-led regime arises. Eventually, a crisis emerges endogenously due to the sudden-stop of capital ows from the net lending country, triggered by the excessive risk associated to the dramatic amount of private debt accumulated by households in the borrowing country. Monte Carlo simulations for a wide range of calibrations confirm the robustness of our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Cardaci & Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "Inequality and Imbalances : a Monetary Union Agent-Based Model," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-30, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1730
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; Current Account; Currency Union; Agent-based model;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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