IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/wisagr/583.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Freer Trade Really Lead to Productivity Growth? Evidence from Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Bresnahan, Lauren R.

    (University of Maryland)

  • Coxhead, Ian

    (University of Wisconsin)

  • Foltz, Jeremy

    (University of Wisconsin)

  • Mogues, Tewodaj

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

Abstract

Theory predicts that trade liberalization should raise average total factor productivity (TFP) among manufacturing firms. However, this is a generic prediction and depends on maintained assumptions about industries, factor markets, and trade patterns that may not fit well for developing countries. Using firm-level data from Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania during the 1990s, a period of fairly rapid trade policy liberalization, we estimate productivity effects of trade. Our analysis confirms the well-known association between export intensity and higher productivity of the firm; however, the evidence for "learning by exporting," or an increase in productivity associated with greater exports, is mixed, with several instances of negative average TFP growth among exporters. Our analysis indicates that such declines are likely attributable to the effects of lower external tariffs, because the firm-level productivity margin below which exporting is unprofitable moves down as the external tariff rate is reduced. We also find that sales to the rest of the world and sales to other African economies have differential effects on productivity growth rates, and that for country-specific reasons, these effects are not uniform. Controlling for initial productivity and the destination of exports (within or outside Africa) helps us understand why in some cases, export participation is associated with negative rates of TFP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Bresnahan, Lauren R. & Coxhead, Ian & Foltz, Jeremy & Mogues, Tewodaj, 2016. "Does Freer Trade Really Lead to Productivity Growth? Evidence from Africa," Staff Paper Series 583, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:583
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/pubs/sps/pdf/stpap583.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernard, Andrew B. & Bradford Jensen, J., 1999. "Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, or both?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Nina Pavcnik, 2002. "Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 245-276.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Arne Bigsten & Mans Söderbom, 2006. "What Have We Learned from a Decade of Manufacturing Enterprise Surveys in Africa?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 241-265.
    5. Sanjaya Lall & Giorgio Barba Navaretti & Simón Teitel & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 1994. "Technology and Enterprise Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-13925-5, March.
    6. Sofronis K. Clerides & Saul Lach & James R. Tybout, 1998. "Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 903-947.
    7. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
    8. Yongzheng Yang & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2005. "Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2005/036, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    10. Yeats, Alexander J., 1998. "What can be expected from African regional trade arrangements? some empirical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2004, The World Bank.
    11. Neil Rankin & Måns Söderbom & Francis Teal, 2006. "Exporting from Manufacturing Firms in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(4), pages 671-687, December.
    12. Taye Mengistae & Catherine Pattillo, 2004. "Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-6.
    13. Paula Bustos, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Exports, and Technology Upgrading: Evidence on the Impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinian Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 304-340, February.
    14. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    15. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    16. Waldkirch, Andreas & Ofosu, Andra, 2010. "Foreign Presence, Spillovers, and Productivity: Evidence from Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1114-1126, August.
    17. Arne Bigsten & Paul Collier & Stefan Dercon & Marcel Fafchamps & Bernard Gauthier & Jan Willem Gunning & Abena Oduro & Remco Oostendorp & Catherine Pattillo & Måns Soderbom & Francis Teal & Albert Zeu, 2004. "Do African Manufacturing Firms Learn from Exporting?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 115-141.
    18. Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Giuseppe Iarossi & Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 2002. "Exports and Manufacturing Productivity in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis with Firm-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 8894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2011. "Multiproduct Firms and Trade Liberalization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(3), pages 1271-1318.
    20. Van Biesebroeck, Johannes, 2005. "Exporting raises productivity in sub-Saharan African manufacturing firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 373-391, December.
    21. Amjadi, Azita & Yeats, Alexander J., 1995. "Have transport costs contributed to the relative decline of sub-Saharan African exports? Some preliminary empirical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1559, The World Bank.
    22. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    23. Baptist, Simon & Teal, Francis, 2014. "Technology and Productivity in African Manufacturing Firms," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 713-725.
    24. Mats GRANÉR & Anders ISAKSSON, 2009. "Firm Efficiency And The Destination Of Exports: Evidence From Kenyan Plant‐Level Data," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 47(3), pages 279-306, September.
    25. Amil Petrin & Brian P. Poi & James Levinsohn, 2004. "Production function estimation in Stata using inputs to control for unobservables," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 113-123, June.
    26. Yasar, Mahmut & Morrison Paul, Catherine J., 2007. "International linkages and productivity at the plant level: Foreign direct investment, exports, imports and licensing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 373-388, April.
    27. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    28. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    29. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    30. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    31. Måns S–derbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Are Manufacturing Exports the Key to Economic Success in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    32. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    33. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    34. Colin Kirkpatrick & Matsuo Watanabe, 2005. "Regional Trade In Sub‐Saharan Africa: An Analysis Of East African Trade Cooperation, 1970–2001," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(2), pages 141-164, March.
    35. Dani Rodrik, 1988. "Imperfect Competition, Scale Economies, and Trade Policy in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pages 109-144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    37. Robert E. Baldwin, 1988. "Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bald88-2.
    38. Arne Bigsten & Paul Collier & Stefan Dercon & Marcel Fafcharnps & Bernard Gauthier & Jan Willern Gunning & Jean Habarurema & Anders Isaksson & Abena Oduro & Remco Oostendorp & Cathy Pattillo & Mans So, 1999. "Exports of African manufactures: macro policy and firm behaviour," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 53-71.
    39. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Rath, Badri Narayan & Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2022. "Understanding the role of trade agreements in Indonesia’s FDI," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Jose Luis Castillo Mezarina, 2021. "The impact of free trade agreements in national markets: Evidence from the telecommunications sector in Latin America," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 860-903, September.
    3. Kollie, Genesis B., 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in ECOWAS: A Panel Data Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    4. Hoedoafia, Mabel Akosua, 2020. "On the Link between Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: Panel Data Evidence from Private Firms in Ghana," MPRA Paper 99568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Charles Peter Mgeni & Klaus Müller & Stefan Sieber, 2019. "Reducing Edible Oil Import Dependency in Tanzania: A Computable General Equilibrium CGE Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Mullings, Robert & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2018. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 243-261.
    7. Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2018. "Economic Growth and the Trade of Russian Regions," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 92-114.
    8. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Su Dinh Thanh, 2022. "The Dynamics of Export Diversification, Economic Complexity and Economic Growth Cycles: Global Evidence," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(3), pages 234-260, August.
    9. Sotamenou Joël & Nehgwelah Glory, 2018. "Impact Of Free Trade On Agriculture: Evidence From Cameroon," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(2), pages 55-70, December.
    10. Ibrahim Mike Okumu & Joseph Mawejje, 2020. "Labour productivity in African manufacturing: Does the level of skills development matter?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 38(4), pages 441-464, July.
    11. Thanh Dinh Su & Canh Phuc Nguyen, 2022. "Productive Contribution of Public Spending and Human Capital in Developing Countries Revisited: The Role of Trade Openness," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 66-84, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coxhead, Ian A. & Foltz, Jeremy D. & Mogues, Tewodaj, 2012. "Does freer trade really lead to productivity growth? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124958, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Fatou Cissé & Ji Eun Choi, 2015. "Do firms learn by exporting or learn to export? Evidence from Senegalese manufacturing plant," WIDER Working Paper Series 057, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Quang-Thanh Ngo & Canh Thi Nguyen, 2020. "Do export transitions differently affect firm productivity? Evidence across Vietnamese manufacturing sectors," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1011-1037, November.
    4. Fatou Cissé & Ji Eun Choi, 2015. "Do Firms Learn by Exporting or Learn to Export?: Evidence from Senegalese Manufacturing Plant," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-057, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Chandan Sharma & Ritesh Kumar Mishra, 2011. "Does export and productivity growth linkage exist? Evidence from the Indian manufacturing industry," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 633-652, November.
    6. Sahoo, Pradipta Kumar & Rath, Badri Narayan & Le, Viet, 2022. "Nexus between export, productivity, and competitiveness in the Indian manufacturing sector," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Ricardo A. López, 2009. "Do Firms Increase Productivity in Order to Become Exporters?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 621-642, October.
    8. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    9. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    10. Mohamed Chaffai & Patrick Plane, 2017. "Firm Productivity, Technology and Export Status, What Can We Learn from Egyptian Industries?," Working Papers 1134, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jun 2017.
    11. Marianne Matthee & Neil Rankin & Tasha Naughtin & Carli Bezuidenhout, 2016. "The South African manufacturing exporter story," WIDER Working Paper Series 038, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J. R. Elliott & Supreeya Virakul, 2010. "Firm Heterogeneity, Origin of Ownership and Export Participation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 264-291, February.
    13. Massimo Del Gatto & Adriana Di Liberto & Carmelo Petraglia, 2011. "Measuring Productivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 952-1008, December.
    14. BOERMANS, Martijn Adriaan, 2013. "LEARNING-BY-EXPORTING AND DESTINATION EFFECTS: EVIDENCE FROM AFRICAN SMEs," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(2), pages 149-168.
    15. Mai Anh NGO, 2015. "Exporting and Firm-Level Credit Constraints-Evidence from Ghana," Working Papers DP-2015-27, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    16. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Lapham, Beverly, 2013. "Productivity and the decision to import and export: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 297-316.
    17. Jamil, Nida & Chaudhry, Theresa Thompson & Chaudhry, Azam, 2022. "Trading textiles along the new silk route: The impact on Pakistani firms of gaining market access to China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Rodrigue, Joel, 2008. "Does the use of imported intermediates increase productivity? Plant-level evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 106-118, August.
    19. Lior Gallo, 2011. "Export and Productivity - Evidence from Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2011.08, Bank of Israel.
    20. López Noria Gabriela, 2021. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Mexican Automobile Industry: Evidence from the First 20 Years of NAFTA," Working Papers 2021-10, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauwius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.