IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20263174.html

Private money and public debt. U.S. Stablecoins and the global safe asset channel

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrari Minesso, Massimo
  • Siena, Daniele

Abstract

This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe assets and the geography of dollar intermediation, stablecoins transform the dynamics of global financial markets, generating new trade-offs, also for the U.S.: even if they widen the dollar’s global footprint and compress U.S. risk-free yields, they entail non-trivial macro-financial costs. Stablecoins dampen the domestic real effects of U.S. monetary policy and increase both U.S. and foreign exposure to cross-country shocks, making a more digital, dollar-centric reserve system less stable. These effects are limited at low adoption levels but rise non-linearly with stablecoin capitalization, reshaping the functioning of the international financial system. JEL Classification: G15, E42, E44, E52, F3

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Siena, Daniele, 2026. "Private money and public debt. U.S. Stablecoins and the global safe asset channel," Working Paper Series 3174, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3174~d4cc1da5a8.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Schilling, Linda & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Uhlig, Harald, 2024. "Central bank digital currency: When price and bank stability collide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. M S Eichenbaum & B K Johannsen & S T Rebelo, 2021. "Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 192-228.
    4. Agur, Itai & Ari, Anil & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, 2022. "Designing central bank digital currencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 62-79.
    5. Andrej Sokol & Michael Kumhof & Marco Pinchetti & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2023. "CBDC policies in open economies," BIS Working Papers 1086, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Cornelli, Giulio & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2025. "Stablecoins, money market funds and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    7. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Dirk Niepelt, 2024. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2505-2552, August.
    9. Barry Eichengreen & My T. Nguyen & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, 2025. "Stablecoin devaluation risk," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1469-1496, July.
    10. Sebastian Doerr & Egemen Eren & Semyon Malamud, 2023. "Money Market Funds and the Pricing of Near-Money Assets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-04, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Niepelt, Dirk, 2019. "On the equivalence of private and public money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 27-41.
    12. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
    13. Assenmacher, Katrin & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Managing the transition to central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2907, European Central Bank.
    14. Le, Anh H., 2022. "Central bank digital currency and cryptocurrency in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 114734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Wilko Bolt & Jon Frost & Hyun Song Shin & Peter Wierts, 2024. "The Bank of Amsterdam and the Limits of Fiat Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(12), pages 3919-3941.
    17. Abad, Jorge & Nuño, Galo & Thomas, Carlos, 2025. "CBDC and the operational framework of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Toni Ahner & Katrin Assenmacher & Peter Hoffmann & Agnese Leonello & Cyril Monnet & Davide Porcellacchia, 2024. "The Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 221-274, October.
    19. Oefele, Nico & Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2024. "Are stablecoins the money market mutual funds of the future?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Assenmacher, Katrin & Bitter, Lea & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "CBDC and business cycle dynamics in a New Monetarist New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2811, European Central Bank.
    21. David Andolfatto, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on Private Banks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 525-540.
    22. Kenechukwu E. Anadu & Pablo D. Azar & Catherine Huang & Marco Cipriani & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gabriele La Spada & Mattia Landoni & Marco Macchiavelli & Antoine Malfroy-Camine & J. Christina Wang, 2023. "Runs and Flights to Safety: Are Stablecoins the New Money Market Funds?," Staff Reports 1073, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Central bank digital currency in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 54-68.
    24. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    25. Anneke Kosse & Marc Glowka & Ilaria Mattei & Tara Rice, 2023. "Will the real stablecoin please stand up?," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 141, July.
    26. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    27. Ahmed, Rashad & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2024. "Dollar reserves and U.S. yields: Identifying the price impact of official flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    28. Pietro Cova & Alessandro Notarpietro & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Monetary policy in the open economy with digital currencies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1366, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    30. Liang, Pauline & Sampaio, Matheus & Sarkisyan, Sergey, 2024. "Digital Payments and Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Paper Series 2024-14, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    31. Rosen Valchev, 2020. "Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 124-166, April.
    32. Gary B. Gorton & Elizabeth C. Klee & Chase P. Ross & Sharon Y. Ross & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2022. "Leverage and Stablecoin Pegs," NBER Working Papers 30796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Ikeda, Daisuke, 2025. "Digital money as a medium of exchange and monetary policy in open economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    34. Adalid, Ramón & Álvarez-Blázquez, Álvaro & Assenmacher, Katrin & Burlon, Lorenzo & Dimou, Maria & López-Quiles, Carolina & Martín Fuentes, Natalia & Meller, Barbara & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Radulova, Pety, 2022. "Central bank digital currency and bank intermediation," Occasional Paper Series 293, European Central Bank.
    35. Rashad Ahmed & James A. Clouse & Fabio Natalucci & Alessandro Rebucci & Geyue Sun, 2025. "Stablecoins: A Revolutionary Payment Technology with Financial Risks," NBER Working Papers 34475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magin, Jana Anjali & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2025. "Cash or Cache? Distributional and business cycle implications of CBDC holding limits," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Abad, Jorge & Nuño, Galo & Thomas, Carlos, 2025. "CBDC and the operational framework of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Dirk Niepelt, 2025. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Architecture," Diskussionsschriften dp2509, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    4. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    5. Xiang, Lijin & Feng, Chao & Xiao, Zumian & Liu, Jianjian, 2024. "The impact of central bank digital currency on macroeconomic dynamics: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff & Laeven, Luc & Meyer, Justus, 2025. "Consumer attitudes towards a central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 3035, European Central Bank.
    7. Assenmacher, Katrin & Bitter, Lea & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "CBDC and business cycle dynamics in a New Monetarist New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2811, European Central Bank.
    8. Nocciola, Luca & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro, 2024. "Transactional demand for central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2926, European Central Bank.
    9. Azzone, Michele & Barucci, Emilio, 2023. "Evaluation of sight deposits and central bank digital currency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Vollmar, Steffen & Wening, Fabian, 2024. "The impact of CBDC on a deposit-dependent banking system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Hua, Qiuling & Qiu, Zepeng & Jiang, Tingfeng & Tang, Ke, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of CBDC negative interest policy in an open economy: A comparison of quantity and price rules," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Bellia, Mario & Calès, Ludovic, 2025. "Bank profitability and central bank digital currency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    13. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "The external financial spillovers of CBDCs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Cong, Lin William & Mayer, Simon, 2025. "Strategic digitization in currency and payment competition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Caccia, Enea & Tapking, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2024. "Central bank digital currency and monetary policy implementation," Occasional Paper Series 345, European Central Bank.
    16. M'bakob, Gilles Brice & Tchounga, Anatole, 2024. "CBDC and banking stability: Modeling cascading effects on reserves, lending, and liquidity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    17. Emilio Barucci & Andrea Gurgone & Giulia Iori & Michele Azzone, 2025. "Central Bank Digital Currency, Flight-to-Quality, and Bank-Runs in an Agent-Based Model," Papers 2510.21071, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    18. Muñoz, Manuel A. & Soons, Oscar, 2023. "Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC," Working Paper Series 2801, European Central Bank.
    19. Michael Kumhof & Marco Pinchetti & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Andrej Sokol, 2023. "CBDC Policies in Open Economies," PIER Discussion Papers 205, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.