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Liquidity spirals

Author

Listed:
  • Wiersema, Garbrand
  • Kemp, Esti
  • Farmer, J. Doyne

Abstract

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 highlighted the risks that liquidity spirals pose to financial stability. We introduce a novel method for studying liquidity spirals and use this method to identify spirals before stock prices plummet and funding markets lock up. We show that liquidity spirals may be underestimated or completely overlooked when interactions between different types of contagion channels or institutions are ignored. We also find that financial stability is greatly affected by how institutions choose to respond to liquidity shocks, with some strategies yielding a “robust-yet-fragile" system. To demonstrate the method, we apply it to a highly granular data set on the South African banking sector and investment fund sector. We find that the risk of a liquidity spiral emerging increases when the pool of institutions' most liquid assets is reduced, while a liquidity injection by the central bank can dampen the spiral. We further show that a liquidity spiral may be due to the banking and fund sectors' collective dynamics, but can also be driven by an individual sector under some market conditions. The approach developed here canbe used to formulate interventions that specifically target the sector(s) causing the liquidity spiral. JEL Classification: G01, G17, G21, G23, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Wiersema, Garbrand & Kemp, Esti & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2026. "Liquidity spirals," Working Paper Series 3169, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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