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How interbank lending amplifies overlapping portfolio contagion: A case study of the Austrian banking network

  • Fabio Caccioli
  • J. Doyne Farmer
  • Nick Foti
  • Daniel Rockmore
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    In spite of the growing theoretical literature on cascades of failures in interbank lending networks, empirical results seem to suggest that networks of direct exposures are not the major channel of financial contagion. In this paper we show that networks of interbank exposures can however significantly amplify contagion due to overlapping portfolios. To illustrate this point, we consider the case of the Austrian interbank network and perform stress tests on it according to different protocols. We consider in particular contagion due to (i) counterparty loss; (ii) roll-over risk; and (iii) overlapping portfolios. We find that the average number of bankruptcies caused by counterparty loss and roll-over risk is fairly small if these contagion mechanisms are considered in isolation. Once portfolio overlaps are also accounted for, however, we observe that the network of direct interbank exposures significantly contributes to systemic risk.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1306.3704
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1306.3704.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1306.3704
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    1. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2004. "Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system," Working Paper Research 43, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2008. "Network models and financial stability," Bank of England working papers 346, Bank of England.
    3. Jeannette Müller, 2006. "Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 37-60, February.
    4. Morrison, Catherine J., 1986. "Productivity measurement with non-static expectations and varying capacity utilization : An integrated approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 51-74.
    5. Mathias Drehmann & Nikola Tarashev, 2011. "Systemic importance: some simple indicators," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    7. Simone LENZU & Gabriele TEDESCHI, 2012. "Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies," Working Papers 375, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    8. Xia, Yongxiang & Fan, Jin & Hill, David, 2010. "Cascading failure in Watts–Strogatz small-world networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1281-1285.
    9. Georg, Co-Pierre, 2011. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and common shocks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    10. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    11. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    12. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
    13. Claus Puhr & Reinhardt Seliger & Michael Sigmund, 2012. "Contagiousness and Vulnerability in the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 24, pages 62-78.
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