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How interbank lending amplifies overlapping portfolio contagion: A case study of the Austrian banking network

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  • Fabio Caccioli
  • J. Doyne Farmer
  • Nick Foti
  • Daniel Rockmore

Abstract

In spite of the growing theoretical literature on cascades of failures in interbank lending networks, empirical results seem to suggest that networks of direct exposures are not the major channel of financial contagion. In this paper we show that networks of interbank exposures can however significantly amplify contagion due to overlapping portfolios. To illustrate this point, we consider the case of the Austrian interbank network and perform stress tests on it according to different protocols. We consider in particular contagion due to (i) counterparty loss; (ii) roll-over risk; and (iii) overlapping portfolios. We find that the average number of bankruptcies caused by counterparty loss and roll-over risk is fairly small if these contagion mechanisms are considered in isolation. Once portfolio overlaps are also accounted for, however, we observe that the network of direct interbank exposures significantly contributes to systemic risk.

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  • Fabio Caccioli & J. Doyne Farmer & Nick Foti & Daniel Rockmore, 2013. "How interbank lending amplifies overlapping portfolio contagion: A case study of the Austrian banking network," Papers 1306.3704, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1306.3704
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgescu, Oana-Maria, 2015. "Contagion in the interbank market: Funding versus regulatory constraints," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Farmer, J Doyne & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M & Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Wetzer, Thom, 2020. "Foundations of system-wide financial stress testing with heterogeneous institutions," Bank of England working papers 861, Bank of England.
    3. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn & Michailidis, George, 2019. "Interconnectedness in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 520-538.
    4. Farmer, J. Doyne & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa & Goodhart, Charles, 2021. "Systemic implications of the bail-in design," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-21, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    5. Wiersema, Garbrand & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M. & Wetzer, Thom & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Scenario-free analysis of financial stability with interacting contagion channels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    7. Peilong Shen & Zhinan Li, 2020. "Financial contagion in inter-bank networks with overlapping portfolios," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(4), pages 845-865, October.
    8. Chabot, Miia & Bertrand, Jean-Louis, 2021. "Complexity, interconnectedness and stability: New perspectives applied to the European banking system," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 784-800.
    9. Farmer, J. Doyne & Wiersema, Garbrand & Kemp, Esti, 2023. "Liquidity Spirals," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    10. Amzallag, Adrien & Blau, Maximilian L., 2017. "Tracing European structured finance counterparty networks," Occasional Paper Series 199, European Central Bank.
    11. Emmanuel Caiazzo & Alberto Zazzaro, 2023. "Bank Diversity And Financial Contagion," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 178, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.

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