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Spillover Effects between Financial and Physical Copper Markets

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  • Romain Capliez-Wahart

Abstract

This article investigates the dynamics of information transmission between spot and futures copper markets by extending the Garbade and Silber (1983) model and estimating it within a Vector Logistic Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (VLSTAR) framework. Using copper data—including cyclical prices, returns, conditional volatility, and Value at Risk---we show that the futures market consistently leads information flows, with its dominance intensifying during crisis periods. Financial information is more extensively transmitted across markets than non-financial information, although only the latter exhibits regime-dependent behavior. During crises, market risk tends to remain localized, whereas return uncertainty diffuses more broadly across markets. These findings support the policy recommendation of allowing a moderate and controlled increase in spot prices to stimulate investment and prevent abrupt spikes in futures prices, which could destabilize the real economy and hinder progress in the energy transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Capliez-Wahart, 2025. "Spillover Effects between Financial and Physical Copper Markets," EconomiX Working Papers 2025-40, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-40
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    File URL: https://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2025/WP_EcoX_2025-40.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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