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Testing for threshold cointegration and error correction: evidence in the petroleum futures market

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  • Jeng Bau Lin
  • Chin Chia Liang

Abstract

This article examines the existence of threshold cointegration between futures and spot prices for the Brent petroleum market. We then estimate the asymmetric error-correction specification utilizing the Momentum Threshold Autoregressive Consistent (M-TAR-C) approach particularly proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001). We find that, for the daily data over 2 January 2001 through 15 October 2006, the petroleum futures prices are cointegrated with the spot prices. This effectively confirms the expectations hypothesis and that asymmetric adjustments for the futures basis towards the long-run value display a negative basis from the long-run equilibrium level more persistently than a positive basis from that level. The empirical result suggests that short-run arbitrages manipulating buy-long (sell-short) futures contracts be profitable when a positive basis is weakening (a negative basis is strengthening).

Suggested Citation

  • Jeng Bau Lin & Chin Chia Liang, 2010. "Testing for threshold cointegration and error correction: evidence in the petroleum futures market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2897-2907.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:22:p:2897-2907
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840801964716
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
    2. repec:aen:journl:2006v27-03-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime-dependent adjustment in energy spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-409.
    2. Rubaszek Michal & Karolak Zuzanna & Kwas Marek & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2020. "The role of the threshold effect for the dynamics of futures and spot prices of energy commodities," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Robert Czudaj & Joscha Beckmann, 2012. "Spot and futures commodity markets and the unbiasedness hypothesis - evidence from a novel panel unit root test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1695-1707.
    4. Romain Capliez-Wahart, 2025. "Spillover Effects between Financial and Physical Copper Markets," EconomiX Working Papers 2025-40, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Alphonse Singbo & Dislène Sossou, 2024. "Asymmetric spot‐futures prices adjustments in Quebec grain markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 72(3), pages 347-363, September.
    6. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Khediri, Karim Ben & Mrabet, Zouhair, 2019. "The forward premium anomaly in the energy futures markets: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 600-615.
    7. Marek Kwas & Michał Rubaszek, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Looking for a Benchmark," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-13, June.

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