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Non-linearities in the relationship of agricultural futures prices

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  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Robert Czudaj

Abstract

The movement of food prices remains a controversial issue owing to the intense rise in volatility that has been observed in recent years. Agricultural futures markets have experienced a similar pattern and simplistic linear models seem to be no longer reliable when analysing their functions. Against this background, this study contributes to the literature by adopting a non-linear smooth transition approach to examine the relationship between prices for first and second nearby futures contracts of seven agricultural commodities. Our main objective is to distinguish between contango and backwardation regimes when analysing the relationship between the futures spread and changes in the first nearby futures price. Our findings reveal that a linear framework neglects important dynamics, as futures prices adjust only under specific circumstances, and that the predictive power of the futures spread is much stronger during backwardation regimes. , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2014. "Non-linearities in the relationship of agricultural futures prices," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(1), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:1-23
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbt015
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    Cited by:

    1. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2015. "Are unleaded gasoline and diesel price adjustments symmetric? A comparison of the four largest EU retail fuel markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 281-291.
    2. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2020. "The impact of global financial crisis on informational efficiency: Evidence from price-volume relation in crude palm oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    3. Teresa Vollmer & Helmut Herwartz & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2020. "Measuring price discovery in the European wheat market using the partial cointegration approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1173-1200.
    4. Czudaj Robert L., 2020. "The role of uncertainty on agricultural futures markets momentum trading and volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-39, June.
    5. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    6. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2017. "Noncausality and the commodity currency hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 424-433.
    7. Carlotta Penone & Samuele Trestini, 2022. "Testing for asymmetric cointegration of Italian agricultural commodities prices: Evidence from the futures-spot market relationship," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 50-58.
    8. Jia, Rui-Lin & Wang, Dong-Hua & Tu, Jing-Qing & Li, Sai-Ping, 2016. "Correlation between agricultural markets in dynamic perspective—Evidence from China and the US futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 464(C), pages 83-92.
    9. Nyassoke Titi Gaston Clément & Jules Sadefo-Kamdem & Louis Aimé Fono, 2019. "Dynamic Optimal Hedge Ratio Design when Price and Production are stochastic with Jump," Working Papers hal-02417401, HAL.
    10. repec:fpr:export:1344 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    12. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang & Liyu Liu, 2023. "Asymmetric price adjustment and price discovery in spot and futures markets of agricultural commodities," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 27(1), pages 139-162, February.
    13. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2024. "Terms of trade or market power? Further evidence from dynamic spillovers in return and volatility between Malaysian crude palm oil and foreign exchange markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.
    15. Kurmas Akdogan, 2018. "Mean-reversion and structural change in European food prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(4), pages 163-173.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime-dependent adjustment in energy spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-409.

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