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Build back better? Long-lasting impact of the 2010 Earthquake in Haiti

Listed author(s):
  • Camille Saint-Macary

    ()

    (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine)

  • Claire Zanuso

    ()

    (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL)

(english) This paper analyses the long-lasting effects of the 2010 Haiti earthquake on household well-being. Using original longitudinal data and objective geological measures, we estimate the impact over the whole country, and outside the Metropolitan Area of Port-au-Prince with difference-in-difference estimations. As the earthquake hit the country in a very specific area, its capital city, we employ different strategies to address the possible violation of the parallel trend assumption. We provide strong evidence that in Haiti the immediate negative shock has been associated to persistent welfare losses over timeOur results also show that the earthquake has an overall negative long-lasting impact on labour market participation. When we exclude the more specific Metropolitan area, we observe a drop of 3.9 p.p. in the probability to participate to labour market, encumbering the resilient recovery. The disruption of household's livelihood system reduce the probability to recover from the shock without external aid. However, our findings suggest that the assistance program's coverage, even among the most impacted households has been highly variable. _________________________________ (français) Cet article estime l’impact à moyen terme du tremblement de terre qui a frappé Haïti en 2010 sur le bien-être des ménages. Grâce à des données longitudinales de première main, ainsi que des données objectives géo-référencées de l’intensité du séisme, nous estimons l’impact au niveau national et pour un échantillon plus restreint excluant l’aire métropolitaine de Port-au-Prince à l’aide d’une estimation en doubles différences. Parce que l’épicentre du séisme se situe dans cette zone spécifique qui est la capitale, nous mobilisons plusieurs stratégies pour répondre à la violation potentielle de l’hypothèse d’évolution parallèle en absence de choc. Nos résultats montrent que le choc négatif a provoqué une perte de richesse durable dans le temps pour les ménages haïtiens. Nos résultats suggèrent également un impact négatif durable sur l’offre de travail. Plus précisément, lorsque nous excluons l’aire métropolitaine, nous observons une diminution de 3.9 points de pourcentage de la probabilité de participer au marché du travail, constituant un obstacle important au processus de résilience. Le dérèglement des différents moyens de subsistance réduit la probabilité pour les ménages de se remettre du choc dans aide extérieure. Pourtant, nos résultats montrent des limites dans le ciblage des populations affectées.

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File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2015/2015-15
File Function: First version, 2015
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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2015/15.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2015
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201515
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