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Protectionism during the crisis: Tit-for-tat or chicken games?

  • Boffa, Mauro
  • Olarreaga, Marcelo

During the recent financial crisis many countries resorted to protectionist measures to try to boost demand for domestically-produced goods. In this paper we explore the extent to which the adoption of protectionist measures led to retaliation by other countries undermining the increase in demand. We found no evidence of retaliation. On the contrary, there is strong evidence of chicken-games being played. Indeed, the probability of a protectionist measure being imposed on a trading partner's export bundle is significantly smaller when the partner imposes a protectionist measure on home exports.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9119.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9119
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  1. Jonah B. Gelbach & Doug Miller, 2009. "Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering," Working Papers 99, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Bagwell,K. & Staiger,R.W., 1998. "An economic theory of GATT," Working papers 15, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Douglas A. Irwin, 1996. "The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment," NBER Working Papers 5509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
  5. Kee, Hiau Looi & Neagu, Cristina & Nicita, Alessandro, 2010. "Is protectionism on the rise ? assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5274, The World Bank.
  6. Giovanni Maggi & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2005. "A Political-Economy Theory of Trade Agreements," NBER Working Papers 11716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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