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Repeat Sales Indexes: Estimation Without Assuming that Errors in Asset Returns Are Independently Distributed

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  • Campbell, Rachel
  • Graddy, Kathryn
  • Hamilton, Jonathan

Abstract

This paper proposes an alternative specification for the second stage of the Case-Shiller repeat sales method. This specification is based on serial correlation in the deviations from the mean one-period returns on the underlying individual assets, whereas the original Case-Shiller method assumes that the deviations from mean returns by the underlying individual assets are i.i.d. The methodology proposed in this paper is easy to implement and provides more accurate estimates of the standard errors of returns under serial correlation. The repeat sales methodology is generally used to construct an index of prices or returns for unique, infrequently traded assets such as houses, art, and musical instruments which are likely to be prone to exhibit serial correlation in returns. We demonstrate our methodology on a dataset of art prices and on a dataset of real estate prices from the city of Amsterdam.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, Rachel & Graddy, Kathryn & Hamilton, Jonathan, 2009. "Repeat Sales Indexes: Estimation Without Assuming that Errors in Asset Returns Are Independently Distributed," CEPR Discussion Papers 7344, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7344
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kathryn Graddy & Philip E. Margolis, 2011. "Fiddling With Value: Violins As An Investment?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 1083-1097, October.
    2. Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
    3. William N. Goetzmann & Liang Peng, 2002. "The Bias of the RSR Estimator and the Accuracy of Some Alternatives," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 13-39.
    4. Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-1376, December.
    5. Roll, Richard, 1983. "On computing mean returns and the small firm premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 371-386, November.
    6. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    7. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    8. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2004. "Selectivity, Quality Adjustment and Mean Reversion in the Measurement of House Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2_3), pages 161-178, March.
    9. Jesse M. Abraham & William S. Schauman, 1991. "New Evidence on Home Prices from Freddie Mac Repeat Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 333-352.
    10. Goetzmann, William Nelson, 1992. "The Accuracy of Real Estate Indices: Repeat Sale Estimators," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-53, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. James Bugden, 2014. "Quality-Adjusted Repeat-Sale House Price Indices," Working Papers 2014.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    2. Seth C. Anderson & Robert B. Ekelund & John D. Jackson & Robert D. Tollison, 2016. "Investment in early American art: the impact of transaction costs and no-sales on returns," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 40(3), pages 335-357, August.
    3. repec:eee:jeborg:v:140:y:2017:i:c:p:120-129 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Deng, Yongheng & McMillen, Daniel P. & Sing, Tien Foo, 2014. "Matching indices for thinly-traded commercial real estate in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-98.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    art; index; real estate; repeat sales;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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