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Historic Turning Points in Real Estate

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J Shiller

    () (Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics and International Center for Finance, Yale University, 30 Hillhouse Avenue, New Haven, CT 06520-8281, USA.)

Abstract

This paper looks for markers of ends of real estate booms or busts. The changes in market psychology and related indicators that occurred at real estate market turning points in the United States since the 1980s are compared with changes at turning points in the more distant past. In all these episodes, changes in an atmosphere of optimism about the future course of home prices, changes in public interpretation of the boom, as well as evidence of supply response to the high prices of a boom are noted. Eastern Economic Journal (2008) 34, 1–13. doi:10.1057/palgrave.eej.9050001

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J Shiller, 2008. "Historic Turning Points in Real Estate," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-13, Winter.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:easeco:v:34:y:2008:i:1:p:1-13
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guay Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2016. "Non-Linearities in the Relationship between House Prices and Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    2. repec:iae:iaewps:wp2016n2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    4. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1345-z is not listed on IDEAS
    5. McDuff, DeForest, 2011. "Demand substitution across US cities: Observable similarity and home price correlation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Eugene N. White, 2014. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Eli Beracha & Hilla Skiba, 2011. "Momentum in Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 299-320, October.
    8. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation and American History," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 1-42, May.
    9. Highfill Jannett, 2008. "The Economic Crisis as of December 2008: The Global Economy Journal Weighs In," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-7, December.
    10. Diks, Cees & Wang, Juanxi, 2016. "Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 68-88.
    11. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    12. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    14. Wang, J., 2015. "Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    15. Horváth, Áron & Sápi, Zoltán & Révész, Gábor, 2016. "Irodapiaci ciklusok jellemzése a hozam, a bérleti forgalom, az üresedés, a bérleti díjak és az új átadás alapján
      [Yields, take-up, vacancy, rents and new supply during office-market cycles]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 113-136.
    16. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation Of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation And American History," NBER Working Papers 18825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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