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Target Zones in Theory and History: Credibility, Efficiency, and Policy Autonomy

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  • Flandreau, Marc
  • Komlos, John

Abstract

A natural experiment with an exchange-rate band in Austria-Hungary in the early 20th century provides a rare opportunity to discuss critical aspects of the theory of target zones. Providing a new derivation of the target zone model as a set of nested hypotheses, the inference is drawn that policy credibility and market efficiency were paramount in the success of the Austro-Hungarian experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Flandreau, Marc & Komlos, John, 2005. "Target Zones in Theory and History: Credibility, Efficiency, and Policy Autonomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5199, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Bordo, Michael D. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "The inter-war gold exchange standard: credibility and monetary independence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-32, February.
    8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
    9. Jeanne, Olivier, 1996. " Would a Tobin Tax Have Saved the EMS?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 503-520, December.
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    11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Flandreau, Marc, 2006. "The logic of compromise: Monetary bargaining in Austria-Hungary, 1867 1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 3-33, April.
    2. repec:spr:sjecst:v:154:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s41937-017-0008-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Richard C.K. Burdekin & Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2012. "Irving Fisher and Price‐Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 733-750, June.
    4. Esteves, Rui Pedro & Reis, Jaime & Ferramosca, Fabiano, 2009. "Market Integration in the Golden Periphery. The Lisbon/London Exchange, 1854-1891," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 324-345, July.
    5. Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
    6. Marc Flandreau, 2006. "Comments on J. Williamson: “A worldwide system of reference ratesâ€\x9D," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 353-357, December.
    7. Stefano Ugolini, 2012. "The origins of foreign exchange policy: the National Bank of Belgium and the quest for monetary independence in the 1850s," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 51-73, February.
    8. John Williamson, 2006. "A worldwide system of reference rates," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 341-352, December.
    9. Spivak, Avia & Sussman, Nathan, 2008. "Inflation Targeting as the New Golden Standard," CEPR Discussion Papers 7001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Nils Herger, 2016. "Interest parity conditions during the classical gold standard (1880 -1914) - Evidence from the investment demand for bills of exchange in Europe," Discussion Papers 1607, Exeter University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austria-Hungary; covered interest parity; credibility; market efficiency hypothesis; monetary model; monetary policy; target zone;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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