IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01065605.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Target zones in History and Theory : efficiency, credibility and policy autonomy

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Flandreau

    (Centre for Finance and Development - GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES)

  • John Komlos

    (Department of Economics - Tilburg University [Netherlands])

Abstract

A natural experiment with an exchange-rate band in Austria-Hungary in the early 20th century provides a rare opportunity to discuss critical aspects of the theory of target zones. Providing a new derivation of the target zone model as a set of nested hypotheses, the inference is drawn that policy credibility and market efficiency were paramount in the success of the Austro-Hungarian experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Flandreau & John Komlos, 2005. "Target zones in History and Theory : efficiency, credibility and policy autonomy," Working Papers hal-01065605, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01065605
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01065605
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01065605/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
    2. John Komlos & Marc Flandreau, "undated". "Core or Periphery? The Credibility of the Austro-Hungarian Currency, 1867-1913," Articles by John Komlos 4, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
    4. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:88:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Goldman, Elena, 2000. "Testing efficient market hypothesis for the dollar-sterling gold standard exchange rate 1890-1906: MLE with double truncation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 253-259, December.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    8. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. "Testing the basic target zone model on Swedish data 1982-1990," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1441-1469, August.
    9. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2004. "Three Decades of Money Demand Studies. Some Differences and Remarkable Similarities," Working Papers 88, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    10. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "International Money: Postwar Trends and Theories," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198775133.
    11. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    12. Lindberg, H. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Testing the Basic Target Zone Model on Swedish Data," Papers 488, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    13. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    14. Koppl, Roger & Yeager, Leland B., 1996. "Big Players and Herding in Asset Markets: The Case of the Russian Ruble," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 367-383, July.
    15. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    16. Bayoumi,Tamim & Eichengreen,Barry & Taylor,Mark P. (ed.), 1997. "Modern Perspectives on the Gold Standard," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521571692.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marc Flandreau, 2006. "The logic of compromise : monetary bargaining in Austria-Hungary 1867-1913," Working Papers hal-01065619, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/604 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/602 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/602 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/602 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Flandreau, Marc & Komlos, John, 2006. "Target zones in theory and history: Credibility, efficiency, and policy autonomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1979-1995, November.
    5. Jess Rodr?uez L?ez & Hugo Rodr?uez Mendiz?al, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: Target Zones Revisited," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 518.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    6. Marc Flandreau & John Komlos, 2003. "Target Zones in History and Theory : Lessons from an Austro-Hungarian Experiment, 1896-1914," Sciences Po publications n°2003-18, Sciences Po.
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/325 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/325 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/325 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Peter P. Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2017. "FX options in target zones," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1486, October.
    11. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
    12. Marc Flandreau & John Komlos, 2001. "How to Run a Target Zone ? Age Old Lessons from an Austro-Hungarian Experiment," Working Papers hal-01064999, HAL.
    13. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    14. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    15. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Distribution and Volatility under the Portuguese Target Zone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 261-282, September.
    16. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007. "The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, September.
    17. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Testing for Nonlinear Adjustment in the Portuguese Target Zone: Is there a Honeymoon Effect?," GEMF Working Papers 2013-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    18. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Regime: Target Zones Revisited," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/10, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    19. Wilfling Bernd, 2003. "Interest Rate Volatility Prior to Monetary Union under Alternative Pre-Switch Regimes," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 433-457, December.
    20. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    21. Mundaca, Gabriela & Oksendal, Bernt, 1998. "Optimal stochastic intervention control with application to the exchange rate," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 225-243, March.
    22. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2012. "Is There a Trade-off between Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility? Evidence from an M-GARCH Model," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(1), pages 19-37.
    23. Elias D. Belessakos & Christos I. Giannikos, 2002. "The "Lack" of Volatility Trade-Offs in Exchange Rate Zones with Sticky Prices," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(1), pages 69-78, April.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/323 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2008. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case," GEMF Working Papers 2008-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    26. Lera, Sandro Claudio & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-47.
    27. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    target zone; market efficiency; monetary policy; covered interest parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01065605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.